Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
State of Union today. Grains are higher. SK is up 6 cents and near 11.54. SMK is near 333.0. BOK is near 45.47. CK is up 2 cents and near 4.31. WK is up 3 cents and near 5.34. KWK is down 6 cents and near 5.62. MWK is up 7 cents and near 6.52. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. China export data supportive. First fatalities in Red Sea vessel attacks. US Fed Chairman suggested 2024 rates cuts but also said progress in lower inflations not yet assured. Key US jobs report Friday.
SK is near 11.54. There remains uncertainty over size of Brazil soybean crop and China soybean import demand. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. C Brazil could see rains. MGDS and Parana remains dry. Brazil soybean export prices jumped to $428 (+15) vs US $447. China Jan-Feb soybean imports were down 3 mmt vs ly. Oct-Feb was 36 mmt, down 2 mmt vs ly. China vegoil prices up and near resistance. WTO ruled in favor of EU that palmoil can not be used for biodiesel demand. SK still in 11.28-11.65 range. USDA Friday. CONAB next Tuesday.
CK is near 4.31. Resistance 4.43. US fob price $192 vs Ukraine $169. US Midwest warm and dry. Should help early plantings. There remains uncertainty over size of Brazil corn crop. USDA est Friday. CONAB next Tuesday. China is buying cheaper Ukraine corn. Dalian corn futures were higher. Weekly US ethanol prod was up 4 pct vs ly. Stocks up 3 pct vs ly. US sales est near 800-1,400 mt. CK traded over 20 DMA for first time in 2024. CK up 26 cents since Feb low.
Wheat futures are higher. Rumors China cancelled open US sales weighed on futures Wednesday. WK made new lows with 5.53 now resistance. Russia export price is heard below $190 vs US SRW $232. There is rain forecast for US C plains. Egypt is tendering for May 1-10 wheat after IMF aggreed to a $8 billion loan to Egypt. Worries increased over east EU farmer profit outlook. MENA countries financial outlook also in question. Non US global exporters are competing for lower World import demand. Weekly US sales near 250-500 mt. Few look for changes in Fridays WADE wheat numbers.
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