Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are a little lower after on Friday the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow futures advanced to record highs.
There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.
However, the January consumer price index report will be released on Tuesday, which is expected to show 0.2% increase on a month-to-month basis and a 3.0% advance on a year-to-year basis. The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, on a month-to-month basis is predicted to be up 0.3%, and on an annualized basis it is estimated to be up 3.7%.
The January producer price index will be released on Friday, which is forecast to be up 0.1%, and the producer price index on an annualized basis is estimated to be up 0.7%. The producer price index, excluding food and energy, on a monthly basis is expected to be up 0.1%, and the producer price index on an annualized basis is predicted to be up 1.7%.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is a little higher.
Interest rate differentials remain supportive to the greenback.
German commercial property prices fell 12.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared with a year earlier, which is the largest decline on record.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are steady at the front of the curve and are a little higher at the long end of the curve.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Michelle Bowman at 8:20 central time and Neel Kashkari at 12:00.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 15% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is an 85% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
The fundamentals and technicals are not encouraging for the bull camp.
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