Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are sharply higher, including a new record high for S&P 500 futures, due to better than expected corporate earnings reports, especially in the tech sector.
Jobless claims in the week ended February 17 were 201,000 when 216,000 were anticipated.
The January Chicago Federal Reserve national activity index was -0.30 when -0.16 was estimated.
The 8:45 central time February PMI composite is predicted to be 50.1.
The 9:00 January existing home sales report is forecast to show 3.98 million.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is a little higher.
Interest rate differentials remain supportive to the greenback longer term.
The euro currency gained when European Central Bank officials agreed that it was premature to discuss interest rate cuts despite recent indications of cooling inflationary pressures.
The euro zone February composite PMI flash was estimated at 48.9 when 48.5 was forecast.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Yesterday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s January 31 policy meeting revealed more Federal Reserve officials signaled concerns about lowering interest rates too soon. “Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy.”
March Treasury bond futures fell to their lowest level since December 4, 2023.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Philip Jefferson at 9:00, Patrick Harker at 2:15, Neel Kashkari at 4:00, Lisa Cook at 4:00 and Christopher Waller at 6:35 PM.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 4.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is a 96% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
The fundamentals and technicals remain bearish on balance for futures.
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