Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH down 5 cents and near 11.69. SMH is near 380.6. BOH is near 38.54. CH is down 2 cents and near 4.21. WH is up 3 cents and near 5.99. KWH is up 3 cents and near 5.65. US stocks, Crude and Gold are marginally higher. US Dollar is slightly lower. Trade awaiting news on vaccine versus virus surge. Trade also watching South America weather. 11-14 day maps shows rain in N Brazil. Argentina remains dry.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 75 yuan in soybeans, down 14 in Corn, down 6 in Soymeal, up 56 in Soyoil, and up 66 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 10 ringgit at 3,446 (basis February) falling from 8 year highs despite good Dec 1-15 export estimates. India November palmoil imports were down 8 pct and near 5 month low.
US NOPA members were estimated to have crushed 180.025 million bushels of soybeans last month. It would be down 2.8% October’s record-large crush of 185.245 million bushels but up 9.2% from November 2019, when NOPA members crushed 164.909 million bushels. US soybean exports are up 72 pct from last year.
China’s pig and sow herds, have recovered to more than 90% of normal levels by the end of November and production capacity should fully recover by the first half of next year. But hog and pork prices are still much higher than usual, and analysts say that although capacity has recovered rapidly, output is still far short of demand.
Brazilian farmers had sown soybeans on 95% of the area forecast to be planted with the crop in the 2020-2021 growing season as of Dec. 10, just slightly behind the 96% that was finished on the same date last year, according to agricultural consultancy AgRural. AgRural last week cut its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop for the 2020-2021 season to 131.6 million metric tons, which would still be record output for the country. One group also estimated Brazil soybean crop near 130 mmt with a possible range of 123-132. Same group now estimates Argentina soybean crop near 48 mmt with a range 44-48.
That same group estimates Brazil corn crop near 102 mt with a range of 97-104. They estimate Argentina corn crop at 47 mmt with a range of 45-49. Another group estimates Argentina corn crop near 40-43 mmt with exports near 27-29 mmt versus USDA 34.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net even in Corn; net bought 8,000 Soybeans; net bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 4,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 284,000 Corn; net long 203,000 Soybeans; net long 67,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 99,000 Soyoil.
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