Softs Higher Led by Sugar
Cocoa will continue to face demand concerns until the global economy reaches full speed again, but there are signs that overall global demand reached its lowest point during the second quarter. Europe and Asia look to be well ahead of North America with coming out coronavirus restrictions, and that along with near-term bullish supply developments can help cocoa prices maintain upside momentum.
Coffee prices finished the week in a tight consolidation range that is well above their June contract low. The market appears to have priced-in a record high Brazilian 2020/21 crop and with global demand starting to show some improvement, coffee can extend the rally. For the week, September coffee finished with a gain of 6.10 cents (up 6.0%) and a fourth positive weekly result over the past 5 weeks.
The weather forecast is a little drier than what was expected on Friday as the above normal precipitation was taken out of the forecast and West Texas looks drier than normal. The market collapsed on Friday as weakness in the stock market and fears of worsening trade relations with China helped to drive December cotton down to the lowest level since June 30th.
Since reaching a 4 1/2 month high in early June, sugar prices have been able to bounce back from 3 pullbacks (each of which have posted lower lows) but has not retested the early June high. With fresh evidence of a bearish global supply outlook, however, sugar may extend this current pullback and maintain downside momentum. For the week, October sugar finished with a loss of 24 ticks. While a mild pullback in the Brazilian currency weighed on sugar prices, the main source of pressure came from a key gauge of Brazilian supply.
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