Risk on. Grains are Higher.
Biden is closer to being the next US POTUS. Grains are higher. Risk on. SF is up 12 cents and near 10.98. SF tested 11.04. Close above 10.90 suggest a test of 2016 highs near 12.00. SMZ is near 388.4. BOZ is near 34.96. CZ is up 5 cents and near 4.10. WZ is up 11 cents and near 6.17. KWZ is up 9 cents and near 5.69. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower but near $40. Gold is higher. US Dollar is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 51 yuan in soybeans, up 9 in Corn, up 59 in Soymeal, up 6 in Soyoil, and up 56 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 111 ringgit at 3,208 (basis January) near 4-year highs supported by a steep decline in October stocks and production.
Dry weather still forecasted in US south plains, Russia/Ukraine, south Brazil and east Argentina. US weekly gas use down 9 pct from last year due to Covid. This reducing ethanol demand.
US Sep soybean exports were record 285.9 mil bu and 51 above est. Corn 150 mil bu vs 48 last year. Weekly US corn export sales are est near 1,800-2,500 mt, soybean 800-1,770 and wheat 200-700. Black Sea wheat prices up $2/mmt this week. China may stop buying Australia wheat. EU lower wheat exports.
Trade est US 2020 corn crop near 14,659 mil bu versus USDA Oct 14,722. Range 14,520-14,820
Trade est US 2020 soybean crop near 4,251 mil bu versus USDA Oct 4,268. Range 4,189-4,320
Trade est US 2020/21 corn carryout near 2,033 mil bu versus USDA Oct 2,167. Range 1,850-2,217
Trade est US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 235 mil bu versus USDA Oct 290. Range 190-292
Trade est US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 881 mil bu versus USDA Oct 883. Range 858-901
Trade est World 2020/21 corn carryout near 296.3 versus USDA Oct 300.4. Range 289-302
Some feel USDA should drop World corn crop 13-15 mmt. USDA may not increase China corn import guess
Trade est World 2020/21 soybean carryout near 87.4 mmt versus USDA Oct 88.7. Range 84-94
Trade est World 2020/21 wheat carryout near 319.7 mmmt versus USDA Oct 321.4. Range 316-323
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 6,000 Corn; bought 13,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 39,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 231,000 Corn; net long 228,000 Soybeans; net long 86,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 93,000 Soyoil.
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