Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed, lower. US stocks are higher US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher, Meats were higher.
SK is near 11.91. Dalian soybean, soymeal futures were flat, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Futures rallied Tuesday after Conab lowered Brazil crop est, Conab est the crop at 147 mmt vs USDA 155. Conab also dropped 2023 crop 7 mmt. Still, combined Brazil and Argentina 2024 crop is up 10 mmt vs ly. Brazil harvest is near 60-65 pct. Farmer is a good seller which is offereing resistance to cash premiums. There is no word of new China buying. Here again, USDA has decided to chart their own course with increasing China soybean imports vs China reducing imports. US farmer selling did increase on Tuesdays rally.
CK is near 4.44. Conab est the Brazil corn crop at 112.7 mmt vs USDA 124. Combined Brazil and Argentina 2024 crop is down 6 mmt vs ly. Dry and hot weather continues across Brazil 2nd crop growing areas. Brazil corn futures continue to rally due to slow farmer selling. Argentina crop conditions remain favorable with farmer selling increasing. S Africa is also dry. Ukraine prices remain low and in mid $170’s. Corn market full of uncertainty; Brazil corn crop, China demand, Ukraine supply and acres, US 2024 acres and crop weather.
Wheat futures are mixed. There was no new China cancelling open US SRW sales. Managed funds remain short US futures for any 2024 weather issue. N Hemisphere crop areas are dry. World wheat trade has slowed. Wheat rallies could be limited given higher Russia and EU supplies and lower prices. Matif futures were flat but carrries are widening.
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