Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are moderately higher. SF is unchanged and near 11.04. SMZ is near 388.6. BOZ is near 35.24. CZ is unchanged and near 4.09. WZ is up 2 cents and near 6.11. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 5.66. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 13 cents; HRW up 25; HRS up 10; Corn is up 12 cents; Soybeans up 49; Soymeal up $13.00, and; Soyoil up 155 points. Crushing margins are down 4 cents at $1.25; Oil share is unchanged at 31%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 32 yuan in soybeans, down 4 in Corn, up 7 in Soymeal, up 116 in Soyoil, and up 106 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 33 ringgit at 3,175 (basis January) on position evening after a strong week of gains.
The US 6 to 10 day forecast after a system moving through over the weekend in eastern parts of the Southern Plains and for northern sections of the Midwest turns quiet midweek before another system arrives by the end of next week. This looks to bring light snow and showers for the Midwest and eastern sections of the Southern Plains. Temps cool down to average in both regions by the middle of next week.
Dry weather still forecasted for Russia/Ukraine, south Brazil and east Argentina.
One group now est US 2020 corn crop near 14,502 mil bu versus USDA Oct 14,722. Ave trade guess 14,659. Same group est US 2020 soybean crop near 4,183 mil bu versus USDA Oct 4,268. Ave trade guess 4,251. They also est US 2020/21 corn carryout near 1,701 mil bu versus USDA Oct 2,167. Ave trade guess 2,033. They estimate US 2020/21 corn exports near 2,560 versus USDA 2,325.
According to USDA website, WOB new estimate of China corn imports will be 22 mmt. Their est of US 2020/21 soybean carryout is near 78 mil bu versus USDA Oct 290. Ave trade guess 235. They estimate US 2020/21 soybean exports near 2,350 versus USDA 2,200. Their est of US 2020/21 wheat carryout is near 890 mil bu versus USDA Oct 883. Ave trade guess 881.
Low World sunoil supplies and seasonal drop in palmoil supplies is supporting soyoil prices.
Low Brazil and Argentina old crop soybean supplies supports soymeal futures.
French Matif wheat and corn futures higher on concern of tight EU feed supplies.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 14,000 Corn; bought 16,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 7,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 42,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 245,000 Corn; net long 244,000 Soybeans; net long 88,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 100,000 Soyoil.
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