Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report today. Grains are mixed. SK is up 2 cents and near 11.67. SMK is near 339.6. BOK is near 46.16. CK is unch and near 4.37. WK is up 5 cents and near 5.33. KWK is unch and near 5.74. MWK is unch and near 6.55. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
SK is near 11.67. There remains uncertainty over size of Brazil soybean crop and China soybean import demand. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. C Brazil could see rains. MGDS and Parana remains dry. Brazil soybean export prices jumped to $435 vs US $449. CONAB next Tuesday. Brazil farmer increased cash sales. Most expect USDA to show slight drop in Brazil soybean and unchanged Argentina crop. US soybean commit is down 19 pct vs ly vs USDA est of a 12 pct drop. China vegoil prices up and near resistance. Higher World vegoil prices helping BOK trade over 50 DMA.
CK is near 4.37. Resistance 4.43. CK closed over 20 DMA for first time in 2024. US fob price $196 vs Ukraine $172. US Midwest warm and dry. Should help early plantings. There remains uncertainty over size of Brazil corn crop. CONAB next Tuesday. Brazil corn futures were sharply higher on slow farmer selling. Most expect USDA to show slight drop in Brazil corn crop and unchanged Argentina crop. Dalian corn futures were lower. US corn export commit is up 27 pct vs ly with USDA est a 26 pct increase
Wheat futures are mixed. China cancelled 2 US SRW cargoes. Trade could see a total of 4-5. WK is near 5.31. KWK jumped to 5.74. MWK is near 6.55. Russia export price is below $190 vs US SRW $232. Egypt cancelled its tender due to high prices. Non US global exporters are competing for lower World import demand with Russia exporting 1 mmt of wheat per week. US wheat commit is up 6 pct vs ly. Few look for changes in todays WASDE wheat numbers.
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