June 26 Global Ag News Headlines
Overnight trade has SRW unchanged, HRW up 1; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans down 1, Soymeal down $0.50, and Soyoil unchanged.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 1 cent; HRW up 2; HRS down 14; Corn is down 16 cents; Soybeans down 13; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 90 points. Crushing margins are up 1 cent at 89 cents; Oil share down 1% at 32%.
Chinese Ag futures were closed for holiday.
Malaysian palm oil prices were down 3 ringgit at 2,392 (basis September) at midsession over demand concerns if a second wave of pandemic occurs.
U.S. Weather Forecast
Last night’s GFS model run continued to suggest some meaningful rainfall in eastern Montana, the western Dakotas; rain will occur which will help promote at least some relief from the recent dryness; Eastern Montana and the western Dakotas will likely be in need of follow up rain.
The GFS model also showed a weak tropical system moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and into Louisiana Jul. 6 and then quickly dissipate; the system could enhance rainfall in some crop areas along and near the Gulf of Mexico and where it goes from there would depend on the position and strength of the high pressure ridge.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 25,000 Corn; sold 3,000 Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net short 40,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 316,000 Corn; net long 21,000 Soybeans; net short 53,000 lots of Soymeal, and; short 10,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 70; Corn up 27,000; Soybeans down 1,000 contracts; Soymeal up 1,500 lots, and; Soyoil down 6,600.
There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans ZERO; Soyoil 3,495 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice 106; HRW Wheat 17, and; HRS 488.
TODAY—JULY OPTION EXPIRATION—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—
For the week ended June 18th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 1% behind a year ago, shipments up 11% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year
—By class, HRW wheat sales are down 8%, shipments 13% behind
—SRW sales 35% behind, shipments 16% behind
—HRS sales 16% ahead, shipments up 6%
For the week ended June 18th, U.S. Corn sales are running 14% behind a year ago, shipments 24% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline.
For the week ended June 18th, U.S. Soybean sales are running 6% behind a year ago, shipments unchanged with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year
—Soymeal sales 3% behind on the year, shipments up 1% with a 1% decrease forecasted
—Soyoil sales 51% ahead of a year ago, shipments 51% ahead with a 39% increase forecasted
The International Grains Council raised its forecast for global wheat production in the 2020/21 season, with improved outlooks for Australia and China more than offsetting a downward revision for the European Union; increased its global wheat crop forecast by 2 million tons to 768 million, up from the prior season’s 762 million
—The council put 2020/21 world corn (maize) production at 1.172 billion tons, up from its previous projection of 1.169 billion, while total grains output was raised by 7 million tons of 2.237 billion
—Grains stocks by the end of the 2020/21 season were expected to climb to a three-year high of 635 million tons, up 20 million tons from a year earlier
—World soybean production in 2020/21 was seen at 364 million, slightly up from a previous projection of 363 million
- US JUNE 1 2020 ALL HOGS 105 PCT OF YR AGO (TRADE ESTIMATE 103.7 PCT) – USDA
- US JUNE 1 2020 HOGS KEPT FOR BREEDING 99 PCT (TRADE ESTIMATE 98.2 PCT)-USDA
- US JUNE 1 2020 HOGS KEPT FOR MARKETING 106 PCT (TRADE ESTIMATE 104.2 PCT) -USDA
At least 65 U.S. meatpacking employees and 28 food-processing employees have died from COVID-19, the country’s largest meatpacking union said, reflecting the steep toll the contagious respiratory disease has taken on essential workers; the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union said that more than 196 of its members who work in meat and food plants, grocers and healthcare facilities have died from COVID-19, which is caused by the new coronavirus; more than 2,300 members were exposed to or affected by the virus in the last month
Saskatchewan crop report
—Windy conditions continued in most of the province this week, but started to calm down in other areas; this allowed more farmers to get into the field to spray for in-crop weed control and insect pests; wind continued to dry the topsoil moisture but rain in many areas has helped to alleviate some of these issues; dry conditions and cool temperatures have slowed hay and pasture growth, specifically in the southern and east-central regions; most of the province received at least a small amount of rainfall this week
*DJ China May Wheat Imports 794,944 Tons, Sharply Higher
*DJ China May Corn Imports 636,989 Tons, -14.7%
*DJ China May Soybean Imports 9,376,880 Tons, Up 27.4%
*DJ China May Soyoil Imports 24,100 Tons, -55.8%
*DJ China May Palm Oil Imports 492,340 Tons, -19.4%
China’s soybean imports from top supplier Brazil soared in May to their highest in two years as backed-up cargoes that were delayed by bad weather in Brazil cleared customs; China brought in 8.86 tons of Brazilian soybeans in May, the highest since May 2018 and up 41% from last year’s 6.3 million tons; Brazil imports were also up 49% from 5.939 million tons in April
—Imports from the United States were 491,697 tonnes in May, down nearly 50% from May
2019 and the smallest monthly tally since January 2019
Brazilian grain exporters should not give China the guarantees it requested that their cargoes are free of the novel coronavirus, as that would require extensive testing, according to ANEC, an association representing local grain traders; the exporters’ response to the Chinese request will emphasize that there is no evidence the coronavirus can be transmitted by food—
An appeals court in Brazil’s southern Rio Grande do Sul state ruled that a plant operated by meatpacker JBS SA must close, overturning a lower labor court decision allowing it to open after an outbreak of the novel coronavirus; the JBS chicken plant in the town of Passo Fundo had been authorized to reopen on May 21, after being closed on April 24, following an outbreak.
The Buenos Aires grains exchange said arid conditions affecting various wheat growing regions in Argentina were putting its estimate for the planting of 6.7 million hectares of the cereal at further risk; the organization’s warning comes just a week after it previously cut its forecast for 2020/21 wheat planting by 100,000 hectares; planting is 71.3% complete
—Regarding 2019/20 corn, the exchange said that conversely the dry climate was driving the harvest of the cereal, which is 78.3% complete and on track for production of 50 million tons
Argentina, Brazil monitor massive locust swarm; crop damage seen limited; Argentina and Brazil are monitoring the movement of a 15-square-kilometer locust swarm in Argentina’s northeast, though authorities and specialists said so far it had not caused significant damage to crops in the South American countries.
Ukraine’s grain harvest is likely to fall to 72.4 million tons in 2020 from a record 75.1 million in 2019 due to poor weather; the harvest could include 24.5 million tons of wheat and around 39 million tons of corn; this is a very good result for such a difficult year
—Ukraine harvested 28.3 million tons of wheat and 35.8 million tons of corn in 2019.
—The government said this month the harvest could exceed 68 million tons while analysts see the harvest at between 69 and 74 million tons
—Ukraine exported more than 20.5 million tons of wheat and 30.3 million tons of corn in the 2019/2020 agricultural year from July to June, President of the Ukrainian Grain Association said
EU sharply cuts soft wheat harvest forecast again
- Commission sees EU-27 crop at 117.2 mln T, down 10% on yr
- Reduces forecast by over 4 mln T for second straight month
- Cuts rapeseed, raises maize crop outlook; barley little changed
The European Commission made another big reduction to its forecast for this year’s common wheat harvest in the European Union, lowering expected output to 117.2 million tons from 121.5 million estimated a month ago; projected usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, in the 2020/21 season would now be more than 10% below last year’s crop of 130.9 million
—For exports, the Commission reduced its projection of EU-27 shipments of common wheat for the 2020/21 season that starts in July to 25.0 million tons from 26.5 million previously; that compared with an increased estimate of 34 million tons for 2019/20.
—For maize, the EU’s executive raised its harvest forecast for a second straight month, projecting the crop at 71.9 million tons against 71.4 million seen last month
—The forecast EU-27 rapeseed crop was reduced to 15.4 million tons from 15.6 million last month, and is now in line with last year’s poor crop.
The condition of French soft wheat was stable last week with 56% of crops rated good or excellent by June 22, as in the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said; that marked the fourth week in a row in which the good/excellent score for soft wheat, France’s main cereal crop, has been unchanged, suggesting rain and moderate temperatures this month brought some relief to crops after a very dry spring; the soft wheat rating was still well below a year-earlier score of 80% and remained at its lowest since 2011 for the time of year.
With around 43 million tons, grain harvest in Germany was expected to be around four percent below the previous year’s level, the German Farmers’ Association (DBV) announced; this result of grain harvest would also be slightly below the average of 44.4 million tons for the years 2015 to 2019
Edible oil demand in India could return to normal levels in the first quarter of 2021, analyst Dorab Mistry said; the director of Indian consumer goods company Godrej International Ltd, added that India needed to raise import taxes on edible oils to boost local oilseed output.
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