Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher today after record highs for S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow futures on Friday.
Stock index futures have performed very well this year despite a Federal Reserve that has made it clear that they are in no hurry to pivot to accommodation.
So, some other bullish fundamentals must be at work to support futures that are not yet obvious.
The 9:00 central time January new home sales report is expected to show 685,000.
The February Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey will be released at 9:30. The prior month showed a reading of -27.4.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is lower.
Interest rate differentials remain supportive to the greenback longer term.
The Confederation of British Industry’s monthly retail sales balance, a gauge of sales compared to a year ago, improved to -7 in February 2024 from -50 in January, which was the slowest decline in 10 months.
Statistics Canada estimated January wholesale trade fell 0.6% on the month but January manufacturing sales increase 0.4% on the month.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The U.S. Treasury will auction two-year notes today.
Jeffrey Schmid of the Federal Reserve will speak at 6:40 PM.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 2.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is a 98% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
The fundamentals and technicals remain bearish on balance for futures.
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