Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SK is down 2 cents and near 11.76. SMK is near 338.0. BOK is near 46.30. CK is down 2 cents and near 4.39. WK is down 3 cents and near 5.43. KWK is down 6 cents and near 5.92. MWK is down 5 cents and near 6.64. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. US Consumer Price Index is today.
SK is near 11.76. .SK between 11.62 support and 12.07 resistance. Interesting USDA estimate China imports higher based on vessel data. Conad Brazil crop estimate today with weather hot and dry. Managed funds have a record soybean short. Weekly US soybean exports were down 19 pct vs ly. USDA goal down 12. US soybean export price $457 vs Brazil $417. US soymeal $410 vs Brazil $381. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, RSO and palmoil futures were higher. Malaysian palmoil stocks have dropped below 2 mmt.
CK is near 4.39. CK now between 4.29 support and 4.48 resistance. Conab Brazil crop est today with weather hot and dry. Threats of lower Brazil crop and uncertain US summer weather could begin to offset higher current US and Ukraine supply. Managed funds remain short for any US summer weather problem. Weekly US corn exports were higher than expectedd and season to date is up 33 pct vs ly. USDA goal up 26. US corn export price $196 vs Argentina $178. Dalian corn futures were higher. Matif corn futures also higher.
Wheat futures are lower. WK is finding resistance due to China cancelling open US SRW sales. Wheat rallies could be limited given higher Russia and EU supplies and lower prices. Managed funds remain short US futures for any 2024 weather issue. Weekly US wheat exports were down 16 pct vs ly. USDA goal down 6. US SRW export price $234 vs Russia $198. KS crop rated 53 pct G/E vs 17 ly, OK 65 vs 30 and TX 44 vs 17 ly.
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