Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SK is down 2 cents and near 14.89. SMK is near 476.1. BOK is near 56.00. CK is down 2 cents and near 6.11. WK is down 4 cents and near 6.80. KWK is down 3 cents and near 7.97. MWK is down 1 cent and near 8.29. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. CPI Tuesday.
On Monday, Money seemed to reduce risk on positions due to uncertainty over US Bank system, talk of higher rates and increase debt cost in trading. This suggested corn long liquidation. Season to date US corn exports are still down 37 pct. There is talk that demand for US corn exports could increase in April and May. One crop scout lowered Argentina corn crop 3 mmt to 37 vs USDA 40. Some showers are forecasted for Argentina but key areas could miss the rain. Argentina corn exports could drop 11 mmt from ly to 23. USDA is 28. Brazil second crop is 81 pct planted. Rains have delayed plantings. Crop est near 121 mmt vs USDA 125. Russia will extend Ukraine export corridor 60 days. Some question Ukraine export supplies. There is talk Ukraine 2023 corn acres could be down 50 pct.
Soybeans futures dropped back below 15.00. Risk on trading was reduced due to concern over US Banking system. US farmer selling has slowed. SK-SN inverse suggested good demand esp crush. SMK-SMN spread weakening suggesting slower demand. World vegoil prices lower on higher 2023 rapeseed supply and lower Asian vegoil demand. Ukraine could increase rapeseed acres vs lower winter wheat. EU 2023 acres also higher. One crops scout lowered Argentina crop 3 mmt to 28. USDA is 33. They est Brazil crop 151 vs USDA 153 and 129 ly. 53 pct of crop is harvested.
Wheat futures were higher on funds liquidating net short positions. Saudi Arabia bought 1.0 mmt of option wheat for July-Aug. Russia prices down to near $280. US season to date exports are down 2 pct vs ly. KS G/E rating was unch near 17 pct. OK dropped to 30 from 39. 55 pct of US winter wheat crop is in drought. Rains continue in SRW. Cold temps and snow could delay US spring wheat plantings.
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