Global Ag News for Mar 20.24

TOP HEADLINES

Egypt to allocate $2.66 bln for bread subsidies in new budget

Egypt will allocate more than 125 billion Egyptian pounds ($2.66 billion) for bread subsidies in its 2024/2025 state budget and more than 147 billion pounds in petroleum products subsidies, the finance ministry said on Tuesday.

Egypt, a major wheat importer which also relies on imports of other basic foods and fuel, signed an $8 billion expanded loan deal with the International Monetary Fund earlier in March, after it let its pound plummet by nearly 51%.

The ministry quoted Finance Minister Mohamed Maait in a statement as saying that Egypt had also released goods and merchandise worth $14.5 billion since Jan. 1.

Importers have complained they have been unable to get their goods out of ports because they lacked access to foreign currency.

A total of 596 billion Egyptian pounds was allocated for social protection programmes, including 134 billion pounds for food subsidies in particular, the statement cited Maait as saying.

Egypt’s subsidy programme provides staples like bread, rice and sugar at reduced prices to nearly 60 million Egyptians out of its more than 105 million population.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 6 3/4 in HRW, down 5 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 4 1/2; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil up 0.12.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 18 1/4 in SRW, up 9 3/4 in HRW, up 4 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/4; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil down 1.16.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 29 1/2 in SRW, down 11 1/4 in HRW, down 8 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/2; Soybeans up 49 1/4; Soymeal up $6.40; Soyoil up 3.05.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.9% in SRW, down 10.3% in HRW, down 10.1% in HRS; Corn is down 7.1%; Soybeans down 8.0%; Soymeal down 13.1%; Soyoil up 0.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans down 34 yuan; Soymeal up 21; Soyoil down 12; Palm oil up 64; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 63. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 63 ringgit (+1.50%) at 4264.

There were changes in registrations (-1 Soyoil). Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 37 Corn; 521 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 19 were: SRW Wheat down 1,163 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,432, Corn up 10,032, Soybeans up 6,803, Soymeal up 1,062, Soyoil down 1,380.

Brazil: A front moved into southern Brazil with scattered showers this weekend, as well as some areas of heavy rain. That front keeps much of the country active this week but another that moves through Thursday and Friday will move up into central states. That should leave some good rain for safrinha corn that has had very little over the last week. It will be drier behind the front across the south, which is not exactly a good thing for immature crops there.

Argentina: A couple of disturbances will move through this week that should bring more showers through the country. A stronger front will move through on Wednesday and into early Thursday. It may have widespread heavy showers with it, but conditions will dry out behind it through the weekend. More disturbances moving through next week should keep the overall good conditions going, however.

Europe: An upper-level low will approach Spain this week, but stay offshore, bringing in limited showers. This could move eastward this weekend as another system dives down through the continent and next week looks pretty active as well. In other words, precipitation will be pretty widespread through the end of the month, favorable for winter wheat in most areas, but still too wet in France most likely.

Black Sea: An upper-low in Ukraine will move into the Black Sea by the end of the week, keeping some showers going across southwestern Russia into the weekend. A front should sweep through the region next week with potential for more widespread and heavier showers. Soil moisture and wheat conditions are both in good shape as the crop continues to green up early.

Australia: Scattered showers went through southeastern areas over the weekend, but were pretty isolated in the areas hit. A front is sweeping through the east over the next few days, stalling in Queensland where showers are now forecast to last through the weekend, favorable for adding to soil moisture here. Cotton and sorghum are maturing and seeing some early harvest activity. Soil moisture is not favorable ahead of winter wheat and canola planting, which usually starts up in mid-April. The demise of El Nino and eventual turn to La Nina should favor the winter crops later this year, however.

Northern Plains: A brief warm shot will move through Tuesday, but another round of cold air will push into the region midweek that will likely last through most of next week as well. In the colder air, several systems will move through with scattered showers, mostly as snow. Some of these bursts could be heavier, especially with a storm system this weekend that could bring blizzard conditions.

Central/Southern Plains: An upper-level low in the Southwest will bring some more widespread showers through on Wednesday and Thursday as it finally moves east. The pattern gets very active afterward, with a double-barrelled system moving through this weekend and early next week that at least has a chance for meaningful precipitation across the southwestern wheat areas. A burst of arctic air will likely flow down through the region next week behind that system, which could be damaging for some wheat.

Midwest: Another clipper will move through the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. More lake-effect showers will move through but most areas will stay drier. However, the colder temperatures will come through the region again. That sets up another clipper to move through Thursday and Friday with a burst of snow. But the big story will be a major spring storm system that will have multiple effects this weekend into early next week including heavy snow, freezing rain, strong winds, and severe storm potential as it comes through in at least two pieces.

Delta: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through southern areas over the weekend, helping to maintain overall good soil moisture in much of the region. Several additional storm systems will move through the region this week and next, which should do the same.

The player sheet for 3/19 had funds: net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Egyptian state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said on Tuesday it is seeking wheat in an international purchasing tender. The deadline for offers is March 20.
• DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased durum wheat in an international tender which closed on Tuesday.
• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 119,345 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on March 21.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,800 metric tonnes of rice mainly to be sourced from the United States and China
• RICE TENDER: Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog has issued an international tender to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice.
• RAW CANE SUGAR TENDER: Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) said it was seeking 50,000 metric tons of raw cane sugar from any origin in a tender on behalf of the Egyptian Sugar & Integrated Industries Company. The deadline for offers is March 23.

 

 

TODAY

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 15 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.03m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 25.86m bbl vs 25.782m a week ago

 

LIVESTOCK SURVEY: US Cattle on Feed Placements Seen Up 6.2%

February placements onto feedlots seen rising y/y to 1.83m head, according to a Bloomberg survey of ten analysts.

• Would mark the first y/y increase since October
• Estimates range from +2.7% to +8.8% y/y change
• Feedlot herd as of March 1 seen rising by 0.9% y/y to 11.79m head
• Marketings seen rising 3.9% y/y

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 14 Million Tns In March Versus 13.71 Million Tns Forecast In Previous Week – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 14 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 13.71 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.13 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 2.21 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 134,430 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS UP TO 146,571 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 714,894 TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 694,869 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Brazil extends dominance over US as China’s top corn, soy supplier

Brazil extended its dominance over the United States as the largest corn supplier to China in the first two months of the year, and also raised its soybean exports, Chinese customs data showed on Wednesday.

The surge in Brazilian supplies to China, the world’s largest agricultural importer, comes just over a year after Beijing approved Brazilian corn exports in an attempt to diversify its suppliers and reduce dependence on U.S goods.

China imported 4.1 million metric tons of corn from Brazil of a total 6.19 million tons that arrived during the Jan-Feb period, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, marking a 178% jump from a year-ago period.

U.S. corn imports shrank 67% to 766,989 tons.

Plentiful harvest and logistical breakthroughs such as the consolidation of northern export routes are boosting the competitiveness of the South American grains powerhouse.

Brazil is also keen on exporting corn, soy and other products through Peru’s China-controlled Chancay port, which would allow Brazilian exporters to send goods by truck to the Peruvian port for shipping to Asia via the Pacific Ocean, cutting the transit time by about two weeks.

Shipping from the port also provides an alternative to the Panama Canal, where ships have encountered delays and logjams due to the impact of dry weather conditions on the canal’s water levels.

Indonesia Feb. Palm Oil Exports Fall 25.4% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 25.4% m/m in February, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports fell to 1.59m tons from 2.13m tons in January
• Crude palm oil shipments were 109,109 tons
• RBD palm olein shipments were 473,202 tons
• RBD palm oil shipments fell to 438,366 tons from 460,119 tons in January
• Palm oil sales to European Union fell to 416,461 tons from 424,137 tons in January
• Palm oil sales to India fell to 327,661 tons from 653,220 tons in January
• Palm oil sales to China fell to 200,395 tons from 292,483 tons in January

USDA attaché sees Mexico corn production, imports rising in 2024/25

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Mexico City:

“The outlook for Mexican grain production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is higher year-on-year for corn, wheat, rice, and sorghum based on farmer planting decisions on more average weather conditions and a gradual recovery from exceptional drought conditions. Mexico’s corn and rice imports are forecast higher to meet increasing demand. Meanwhile, wheat and sorghum imports are forecast stable due to increased domestic production.”

 

EU Agrees to Extend Trade Benefits to Ukraine as Farmers Protest

• Representatives agree to suspend import duties until June 2025
• Proposal must now be approved by parliament and member states

The European Union got closer to extending trade support for Ukraine for another year, while creating stronger safeguards to prevent imports of certain products getting too high.

Representatives of EU governments and the bloc’s parliament reached a provisional agreement early Wednesday to renew the suspension of import duties and quotas on Ukrainian exports to the EU until June 2025, according to a statement. The trade measures have been intended to support Ukraine since the start of Russia’s invasion, as the farm sector is a vital part of its economy and some ports remain blocked by the war.

Still, the EU increased protection for sensitive agricultural products such as sugar, corn, eggs and poultry — allowing tariffs to kick in if inflows exceed the average of the past two years.

Crop imports from Ukraine have been at the core of farmer protests that have swept Europe in recent months, alongside rising costs and administrative burdens. Last month, growers asked the European parliament to limit the free trade measures, saying they endanger the bloc’s economies and disrupt the single market.

The proposal must be approved by the European Parliament and member states before coming into force.

 

China’s Premier Li Calls for Stabilizing Grain Output: Xinhua

Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for all regions and departments to increase policy support to stabilize grain production as well as supply of other important agricultural products, Xinhua News Agency reports citing his remarks at a meeting on March 18.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong attended the meeting and urged efforts to do a good job in preparation for spring farming to lay a solid foundation for a bumper harvest this year

Ukraine’s winter crops mostly in good state, ministry says

Ukrainian winter grain crops benefited from favourable conditions between December 2023 and February of this year, with the majority of the harvest in a good or satisfactory state as of March 15, the country’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday.

“According to scientists, by the beginning of spring, 6% to 10% of crops from the total area will be in weak and thinned condition, which is within the limits of natural thinness,” the ministry said in a statement.

Ukrainian farmers sowed a total of 4.4 million hectares of winter wheat, 468,000 hectares of winter barley and 1.44 million hectares of winter rapeseed for the 2024 harvests.

Winter wheat accounts for around 95% of Ukraine’s overall wheat output.

 

China expected to pass new rules for labelling of GMO crops used in food this year, media reports

China is expected to pass new rules for labelling of genetically-modified crops used in food this year, government-backed The Paper reported on Wednesday.

$6 Billion in Fertilizer Plants to Help Indonesia Curb Food Cost

• Pupuk Indonesia seeks debt, equity financing to fund projects
• Co. to boost output and diversify products within five years

Indonesia’s state-owned PT Pupuk Indonesia will invest more than $6 billion to boost fertilizer supply as part of a bid to temper food costs.

The company plans to spend 100 trillion rupiah ($6.4 billion) over the next five years, which includes a new $1.2 billion ammonia and urea fertilizer plant in Fakfak in Papua province and about $640 million of upgrades to its old Palembang complex, said President Director Rahmad Pribadi.

“We need it to improve food security in our eastern regions by providing affordable fertilizer with less logistic cost,” Pribadi said in an interview in Jakarta.

Iowa Attorney General Ends Ethanol Lawsuit After EPA Rule Change

• E15 summer sales ‘long overdue,’ attorney general says
• Iowa, Nebraska filed initial lawsuit in August 2023

Iowa ended its lawsuit over E15 sales after the EPA approved summertime sales of the gasoline mix, a policy change long demanded by a group of Midwestern governors whose states are top corn producers.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird (R) claimed “victory” over the Biden administration now that sales of E15 gasoline, which contains 15% ethanol, will be allowed year-round, according to a Tuesday statement. The new Environmental Protection Agency rule, which eight governors requested, will take effect in 2025.

“This win is long overdue and goes out to the hard-working farmers and families across the state who will reap the benefits,” Bird said in her statement. “I am glad that we can finally put this case to rest; unleash clean, homegrown energy; and give Iowans the financial relief they deserve.”

Thailand Mulls Ban on Corn Imports From Neighbors to Tackle Smog

• Measure to comply with WTO and backed by local law, PM says
• Bangkok, Chiang Mai among world’s most-polluted major cities

Thailand is weighing a ban on imports of corn from neighboring countries that practice agricultural burning, as the Southeast Asian nation steps up efforts to battle a chronic air pollution that’s hit some of its popular tourist spots.

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has asked the Commerce Ministry to issue a set of regulations to curb corn imports during the peak season of residual crop burning in neighboring countries. The restrictions will comply with the World Trade Organization rules and be in line with Thailand’s new Clean Air Act that’s set to be approved by lawmakers by the end of the year, he told reporters Tuesday after a cabinet meeting.

Although Srettha did not identify the neighboring countries, the measure will likely hit imports from Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. The three neighboring countries supply 1.5-1.8 million tons of corn to Thailand, which needs more than 8 million tons, mostly for livestock feed production, but produces only about 5 million tons domestically, according to customs data.

The move to target corn supplies came as popular tourist destination Chiang Mai was ranked among the world’s most-polluted cities over the past week as thousands of hotspots raged across Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand.

The country is in the middle of a harsh summer with the temperatures forecast to rise as high as 44.5C (112F) in some parts, the Thai Meteorological Department said last month. A combination of humidity, wind and other factors last year pushed the heat index to a record of above 50C in parts of the country, pushing electricity demand to the highest level ever.

 

 

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