Global Ag News For June 26.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Egypt Wheat Imports Pick Up With New Russian Cargoes Booked

Egypt has booked wheat from Russia, the first known purchase of Black Sea origin for the next season.

The cargoes were booked by Mostakbal Misr, the Egyptian agency recently made responsible for purchases, from Russian state-backed exporter OZK, according to people familiar with the matter. While the total volume was unclear, the supplies were booked for August and September shipment, with a 270-day payment period, they added, asking for anonymity because the information is private.

Purchases from Egypt, the world’s top buyer of the grain, are closely watched as an indicator for global demand. However, a change last year in how the government buys grain has clouded a key part of the world’s wheat trade, as regular import tenders from the General Authority for Supply Commodities — the body that had previously overseen wheat imports — were paused.

Black Sea countries have typically been Egypt’s largest suppliers, with Russia in the 2023 season accounting for about 70% of sales to the General Authority for Supply Commodities, the body that oversaw wheat imports until late last year.

Purchases by Mostakbal Misr appear to be picking up. Some French cargoes were also booked earlier this month, Reuters reported.

Mostakbal Misr wasn’t immediately able to comment. OZK didn’t respond to a request seeking comment.

Egypt is expected to buy 13 million tons of wheat in the upcoming 2025-26 season, according to US Department of Agriculture forecasts. The country has imported 3 million tons so far in 2025, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk said in an interview with a local TV channel on June 22.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/2 in SRW, up 3 1/4 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.05.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 36 1/2 in SRW, down 36 1/4 in HRW, down 28 in HRS; Corn is down 15 3/4; Soybeans down 39; Soymeal down $6.90; Soyoil down 2.83.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 13; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal down $17.50; Soyoil up 4.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.7% in SRW, down 5.7% in HRW, up 2.9% in HRS; Corn is down 9.8%; Soybeans up 3.1%; Soymeal down 10.5%; Soyoil up 30.1%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 25) Soybeans down 34 yuan; Soymeal down 58; Soyoil up 28; Palm oil up 24; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 47.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 47 ringgit (+1.19%) at 4012.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 193 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 78 Corn; 242 Soybeans; 863 Soyoil; 823 Soymeal; 419 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 25 were: SRW Wheat down 883 contracts, HRW Wheat down 5,557, Corn down 17,670, Soybeans up 1,131, Soymeal up 6,860, Soyoil up 1,129.

 

WARM AND DRY WEATHER LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH AMERICA IN JULY

What to Watch:

• Widespread dry weather likely across most of the continent
• Warmth to persist across Brazil

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 26 JUNE 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Early to mid-June rains have eliminated soil moisture deficits in the western Midwest, creating favorable conditions for corn and soybean growth
• SOUTH AMERICA: LSEG’s monthly forecast indicates warmer-than-normal conditions across Brazil in July, with cold risks confined to the southern Pampas
• EUROPE: Heat and dryness will spread across Western and Central Europe, while the change into cooler weather is not expected before the second week of July
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Dry conditions will persist across the palm oil region for the next 15 days, though current soil moisture and past rains keep the outlook neutral for crop
• TROPICS: Tropical Depression Three is moving over southern China near Hainan, likely to bring another round of flooding rains in Guangxi and Southwest Guangdong

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, especially north. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Midwest West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday.

Midwest East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday-Thursday.

 

PERSISTENT DRYNESS IN MANITOBA LOWERS CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION

2025/26 CANADA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 35.0 [33.9–36.8] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Canada wheat production is fractionally lowered to 35.0 million tons, reflecting continuation of dry weather conditions over key producing wheat region, Manitoba (MB). Over the past two weeks, Saskatchewan (SK) and Alberta (AB) have received modest rainfall. However, MB experienced precipitation shortfalls of up to ~30 mm, which is concerning given already depleted soil moisture levels. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, conditions in AB, SK, and MB will be drier than normal throughout the next 10-days. Notably, SK and MB may experience deficits of up to ~24mm. This continued dryness poses a risk to yield potential, particularly in MB, where recovery will depend on timely and adequate precipitation.

 

The player sheet for 6/25 had funds: net sellers of 3,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 11,000 corn, sellers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group, or MFG, purchased an estimated 266,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Wednesday.
• WHEAT SALE: Bangladesh has approved the purchase of 50,000 metric tons of wheat in an import tender seeking the same volume that closed on June 22, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.
• FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal-feed barley which closed on Wednesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued a new international tender to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase and import 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending June 19.

• Corn est. range 650k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 966k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 600k tons, with avg of 441k

 

CROP SURVEY: Canada 2025 Wheat Planting Seen at 27.7M Acres

Canada wheat area seen slightly above the national statistics agency’s previous est. in March, according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of seven analysts.

• Wheat seen at 27.7m acres vs 27.5m acres in March
• Estimates varied from 26m to 28.5m acres
• Canola planting seen at 21.9m acres vs 21.6m in March, range 20.7m to 23m

 

Biodiesel Makers at Risk Without Tax Credits, Trade Groups Say

US makers of biodiesel are in danger of going out of business if Congress fails to approve a short-term tax credit to fill a policy gap that’s led several makers of the soy-based fuel to curtail production, a coalition of trade organizations warn.

• “Without such a bridge, most biomass-based diesel producers will not survive to 2026. At a time of dangerous conflict in the Persian Gulf, America needs all of the domestic energy it can get,” groups including the Sustainable Advanced Biofuel Refiners and the National Association of Truck Stop Owners said in a statement
• While proposed Senate legislation improves on a US House bill provision for a new clean-fuel production tax credit, known as 45Z, the measure wouldn’t take effect until 2026. That’s a problem given that a two-decade fuel blenders’ tax credit expired at the end of last year, and a lack of clarity on 45Z has put the industry in peril, according to the statement

 

SovEcon Raises 2025 Russian Wheat Crop Forecast to 83m Tons

SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s wheat production in the 2025-26 season to 83m tons from an earlier forecast of 82.8m tons, it said in a note.

• It’s due to improved crop conditions in parts of central Russia, in the eastern areas and Voronezh
• Still, forecasts for Siberia and the Urals were cut as spring wheat area is expected to fall sharply
• Total grain crop forecast has also been raised to 129.5m tons, up from a May forecast of 127.6m tons
  • The barley crop is now estimated at 17.6m tons, up 0.2m tons
  • Corn forecast was reduced to 14.3m tons down from 14.6m tons, due to a smaller planted area

 

Ukraine’s 2025/26 soybean harvest seen falling, export rising, analyst says

Ukraine’s 2025 soybean harvest is seen falling to 6.1 million metric tons from 6.5 million tons in 2024, analyst Maksym Bozhok from Barva Invest consultancy said on Wednesday.

Bozhok told Trend@Hedge Club, a meeting platform for traders and analysts, that Ukrainian 2025/26 soybean exports could increase to 3.6 million tons from 3.4 million tons in 2024/25.

 

Chinese feed makers sign first bulk deal for Argentine soymeal since 2019, sources say

Chinese feed makers have booked a deal for 30,000 metric tons of Argentine soymeal for July shipment, marking the country’s first such purchase since China granted import approval for the product in 2019, four trade sources told Reuters on Thursday.

The cargo was jointly purchased by several Chinese feed makers and is expected to arrive in September in southern China’s Guangdong province, the sources said.

China is the world’s biggest consumer of the protein-rich animal feed raw material but produces most of it by crushing soybeans mainly imported from Brazil and the United States. Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soy oil and meal.

Chinese feed makers are trying to ensure supplies if Beijing’s trade war with the U.S. curbs soybean purchases, the trader said.

The soymeal cargo was sold at $360 per ton on a CNF (cost and freight) basis, they added.

“This is just a test case. Some companies have got together and booked 30,000 tons. If it goes through China’s inspection and quarantine, we expect more deals,” said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company, which sells soybeans to China.

 

Egypt Wheat Imports Pick Up With New Russian Cargoes Booked

Egypt has booked wheat from Russia, the first known purchase of Black Sea origin for the next season.

The cargoes were booked by Mostakbal Misr, the Egyptian agency recently made responsible for purchases, from Russian state-backed exporter OZK, according to people familiar with the matter. While the total volume was unclear, the supplies were booked for August and September shipment, with a 270-day payment period, they added, asking for anonymity because the information is private.

Purchases from Egypt, the world’s top buyer of the grain, are closely watched as an indicator for global demand. However, a change last year in how the government buys grain has clouded a key part of the world’s wheat trade, as regular import tenders from the General Authority for Supply Commodities — the body that had previously overseen wheat imports — were paused.

Black Sea countries have typically been Egypt’s largest suppliers, with Russia in the 2023 season accounting for about 70% of sales to the General Authority for Supply Commodities, the body that oversaw wheat imports until late last year.

Purchases by Mostakbal Misr appear to be picking up. Some French cargoes were also booked earlier this month, Reuters reported.

Mostakbal Misr wasn’t immediately able to comment. OZK didn’t respond to a request seeking comment.

Egypt is expected to buy 13 million tons of wheat in the upcoming 2025-26 season, according to US Department of Agriculture forecasts. The country has imported 3 million tons so far in 2025, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk said in an interview with a local TV channel on June 22.

 

Brazil raises biofuel levels, sees gasoline self-sufficiency

• Ethanol blend raised 3% to 30%, biodiesel up 1% to 15% from August
• Brazil to be gasoline self-sufficient for first time in 15 years – minister
• Industry lobbies cheer move

Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) on Wednesday approved increasing the level of biofuels mixed into fossil fuels, a move towards gasoline self-sufficiency that was also celebrated by renewable energy lobbies after the government earlier hinted the blends would not be changed this year.

From August 1, the proportion of ethanol to be mixed in gasoline will rise to 30% from 27%, and the amount of biodiesel in diesel increases to 15% from 14%, Pietro Mendes, oil and gas secretary at the energy ministry, said during an event to announce the changes.

Mines and Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira also said at the event that the change in the biofuels mandate would make Brazil “gasoline self-sufficient for the first time in 15 years.”

Earlier this year, the CNPE had decided to hold the biodiesel blend at 14% amid fears the proposed increase could push up food prices and damage the government’s approval ratings, something industry groups disputed.

In March, Brazil’s ministry of mines and energy said increasing the proportion of ethanol in gasoline to 30% was backed by tests showing “consistent performance” and “real environmental benefits.”

“We see Brazil increasingly becoming a global leader in the decarbonization process,” Daniel Amaral, director of economics and regulatory affairs at soy industry group Abiove, told Reuters.

Some 70% of Brazil’s biodiesel is produced from soybeans, while its ethanol is made from sugarcane and more recently from corn.

According to the International Energy Agency, biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel play an important role in decarbonizing the global transport sector and cutting emissions of greenhouse gases linked to burning non-renewable fuels.

Aprobio, which represents biofuels producers, said in a statement the decision is fundamental to reducing dependence on petroleum derivatives.

“The timeline is short, but I think the government is betting on the generation capacity of the corn ethanol industry,” Amance Boutin, business development manager at consultancy Argus, said on the sidelines of Argus’ biofuels and feedstocks Latin America conference in Sao Paulo.

The 3% increase in ethanol would reduce gasoline demand by 1.33 million cubic meters, Boutin said, adding that Brazil’s external gasoline deficit in 2024 was 872,000 cubic meters, meaning the South American country will achieve gasoline self-sufficiency with the move.

“The advancement of biodiesel is strategic for national energy security, especially in the face of recent geopolitical instability, such as the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East,” biofuel producer Grupo Potencialsaid in a statement.

 

Malaysia Cuts Crude Palm Oil Export Tax Rate to 8.5% for July

The gazetted price for crude palm oil was set at 3,730.48 ringgit a ton, which incurs an export tax of 8.5%, according to a circular from the customs department posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s website.

• Tax rate was reduced from 9.5% in June
• NOTE: The export-duty structure starts at 3%, when FOB prices for CPO are in a range of 2,250-2,400 ringgit/ton, to a maximum rate of 10%, which occurs when prices are above 4,050 ringgit/ton

 

Brazil corn production slightly up as Safrinha crop harvest begins in full swing

2024/25 BRAZIL CORN PRODUCTION: 128.9 [125.7–132.1] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil corn production is fractionally raised to 128.9 [125.7–132.1] million tons reflecting near record high vegetation density levels across core Safrinha crop areas throughout the prime growing season, despite localized harvest delays and recent/expected frost risks in some southern regions of the country. Our current position is below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 130 million tons (released on 12 June) but above the Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB)’s 128.3 million tons (released on 12 June). As of 21 June, Brazil’s first corn was 94.5% combined according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 23 June), largely in line with last year’s 93.6% and the 5-year average of 93.7%. The second corn is 10.3% combined so far nationally, well behind last year’s 28% and the 5-year average of 17.5%. The early delay in Safrinha crop harvest is notable, though continued dryness expected through next week should help get the overall progress back on track soon. Some localized low temperatures especially in portions of Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, São Paulo, and areas to the south early this week (and potentially later this week as well) are calling for frost/freeze risks, warranting attention.

 

Positive hard red winter wheat conditions slightly increase U.S. total wheat production

2025/26 U.S. WHEAT PRODUCTION: 53.6 [51.7–55.9] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

Updated weather/satellite imagery, crop condition scores, and overall soil moisture status/short-term outlooks slightly (<1%) increase 2025/26 U.S. total wheat production to 53.6 [51.7–55.9] million tons. In its June WASDE report (released on 12 June), the USDA pegged 2025/26 U.S. wheat production at 52.3 million tons, below our current projection. Our current median estimate puts national-level winter wheat yield at 53.2 bushels per acre (bpa), 2.9% above last season and also above trend yield. This leads to total winter wheat production of 38.1 [37.0–39.5] million tons, fractionally up from previous update. Production of total spring wheat is estimated at 15.5 [14.7–16.4] million tons (with durum and other spring wheat at 2.0 and 13.5 million tons, respectively), virtually unchanged from last update.

USDA’s latest Crop Progress report (released on 23 June) continues to indicate overall healthier-than-expected winter crop conditions, with now 49% of the crop in the good or excellent (GEX) category at the national level (vs. 52% last year). Despite a slight decline in the GEX category from last week, this should still be viewed as impressive considering all the potential winterkill events and soil moisture deficits that have highlighted the crop’s dormancy period during the winter. Spring wheat condition scores were slightly down from last week as well, with now 54% of the crop in the GEX category nationally, but a soil moisture recovery continues across some top producing states including the Dakotas and Minnesota, hinting a better-than-expected yield, albeit should still end up well below last season’s record-high level. Looking ahead, overall warm and wet conditions are likely to dominate the Plains and Upper Midwest through next week, which could be a concern for the ongoing winter wheat harvest that is already showing some early delays (9% delayed nationally as of 22 June), warranting attention.

 

Canada rapeseed production unchanged but Manitoba weather to be closely monitored

2025/26 CANADA RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 18.0 [17.2–18.9] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Canada rapeseed production is unchanged from our previous estimate of 18.0 [17.2-18.9] million tons. However, conditions in Manitoba (MB) warrant monitoring amid persistent dryness. Over the past two weeks, Saskatchewan (SK) and Alberta (AB) have received modest rainfall. During this period, MB experienced precipitation shortfalls of up to ~30 mm. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, below normal precipitation is expected to across the Canadian southern prairies throughout the next 10-days, with deficits of up to ~24mm in SK and MB. This continued dryness poses a risk to yield potential, particularly in MB, which will depend on timely and adequate precipitation.

 

China wheat production expected to reach record levels despite drought in the South

2025/26 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 141.7 [139.3-144.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED from last update

Southern wheat regions, including Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu, experienced drought from March to May, leading to a 5-year low soil moisture level. Vegetation densities, derived from satellite imagery, have fallen below the long-term average since late April, indicating the impact of drought stress. However, high irrigation capacity helped maintain satisfactory wheat conditions in key areas. Additionally, favorable weather conditions in northern areas, primarily Hebei and parts of Shandong, have offset drought losses and maintained national production at a high level. According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture, 96% of the wheat harvest was completed by June 18. The heavy rains between June 18-19 had minimal impact on the wheat harvest but replenished soil moisture for summer corn planting.

 

DRYNESS MAY IMPACT AUSTRALIA RAPESEED YIELDS

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 AUSTRALIA RAPESEED PRODUCTION: 6.2 [5.7–6.3] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Australia rapeseed production is unchanged from our previous estimate of 6.2 million metric tons (MMT), but dryness in key producing regions such as New South Whales (NSW), South Australia (SA), and Victoria (VIC) may threaten yield potential if dry conditions persist through the growing period. Over the past two weeks, the rapeseed croplands of NSW, SA, and VIC experienced precipitation deficits between ~12-39mm, warranting concerns about depleted top-layer soil moisture. According to LSEG’s latest Australia weather forecast, Australia’s crop belts will continue to experience precipitation shortfalls over the next 15 days, except for parts of NSW, which may receive rainfall surpluses of up to ~56 mm. On the other hand, LSEG’s long-term weather forecast continues to suggest adequate precipitation levels and mild temperatures through November. If the long-term weather occurs as forecasted, these conditions could benefit yield potential.

 

Argentine crop cycles disrupted by persistent rainfall

Argentina’s agricultural sector faces mounting challenges as persistent May rainfall continues to disrupt crop cycles across key producing regions, with some areas receiving up to 15 inches of rain in less than a week, Argus Media reported.

Data from the Rosario Board of Trade (RBT) showed that while the rainfall has created the best soil-moisture conditions in years, it has also resulted in delayed planting, flooded fields, and inaccessible roads. Wheat planting reached 60.3% completion by June 18, trailing last year’s pace by 5.2 percentage points, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (Bage).

The delays have forced some producers to abandon longer-growing wheat varieties in favour of shorter-cycle options, though seed availability has become an issue. Rain has also prevented farmers from replanting soybean fields with wheat, prompting switches to alternative crops like early corn and additional soybeans.

Consequently, RBT has trimmed its wheat planting estimate for the second consecutive week, cutting an additional 50,000 hectares after last week’s 100,000-hectare reduction.

Soybean harvesting has nearly concluded at 96.5% completion, with yields exceeding expectations thanks to February rains that mitigated earlier drought impacts. The Economy Ministry raised its soybean production estimate by 900,000 metric tons to 49.9mn tonnes.

These weather disruptions highlight Argentina’s continued vulnerability to climatic volatility, potentially affecting export revenues and global grain supplies. While soil moisture levels support future crop development, the immediate planting delays could impact Argentina’s competitiveness in international markets during the ongoing agricultural season.

 

US Poultry Slaughter Fell 1.6% Y/y in May: USDA

Slaughter fell to 5.85 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight fell 0.5% in May from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 9.6% y/y
  • Condemned ante-mortem up 1.6% y/y

 

 

 

 

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