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Global Ag News for Jan 27.23


Transportation of US Grains Still Face Hurdles

US rail transportation for grains was able to turn around a slump in carloads and speed in 2022, but still has a lot of room to improve, the USDA says in its latest weekly Grain Transportation Report. “The number of unfilled orders of empty grain cars is at a record high, and grain train origin dwell times still hover above the 4-year average,” the USDA says. The agency also adds that while barge and ocean rates have improved and fallen below where they were at this time last year, diesel prices remain higher, making transportation of grains cross-country still an expensive affair. CBOT grain futures are higher on the merits of this morning’s export sales report from the USDA, with most active corn up 1.2%, soybeans rising 1.2% and wheat gaining 2.1%.


Wheat prices overnight are up 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal up $0.13; Soyoil up 0.41.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 11 1/4 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans up 19; Soymeal up $1.47; Soyoil down 0.78.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 39 1/4 in SRW, down 26 1/4 in HRW, down 24 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 3/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $7.40; Soyoil down 2.87.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.0% in SRW, down 3.0% in HRW, down 2.6% in HRS; Corn is up 0.8%; Soybeans up 0.4%; Soymeal down 0.0%; Soyoil down 4.1%. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 121 ringgit (+3.20%) at 3902.

China markets remain closed for holiday and will reopen next week.

There were changes in registrations (-198 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,783 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 154 Corn; 819 Soybeans; 479 Soyoil; 62 Soymeal; 192 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 26 were: SRW Wheat down 635 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,039, Corn up 17,090, Soybeans up 2,360, Soymeal up 2, Soyoil up 1,489.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Northern Plains Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, well below normal Saturday-Monday. Outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures well below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers north through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday, near to well below normal Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to well below normal Tuesday, below to well below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday, near to well below normal Sunday-Monday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Sunday-Monday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to well below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday.

The player sheet for Jan. 26 had funds: net buyers of 7,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 6,500 corn, buyers of 7,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 1,000 soyoil.


  • SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed private sales of 106,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2023.
  • RAPESEED MEAL PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) bought about 40,000 tonnes of rapeseed meal animal feed to be sourced from India in an international tender which closed on Thursday
  • FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korea’s animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 11,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal on Thursday after earlier making no purchase in an international tender for feed wheat, European traders said. Price in the private deal was estimated at $350 a tonne c&f for unloading in one port. Seller was believed to be trading house Agrocorp.
  • FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.


  • SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 19,000 tonnes of food-quality soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs)
  • WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

shipping containers


US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country (Table)

  • China bought 1.07m tons of the 1.27m tons of soybeans sold in the week
  • Mexico was the top buyer of corn and also led in wheat

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Jan. 26: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

  • 2022-23 soybean and corn area estimates both are unchanged from the previous week
  • Corn planting 94% complete, soybean planting 99% complete

Small Increase in US Soybean Acreage Expected in 2023: Board

“The general consensus for this next year is we’ll probably see a little bit of an uptick” in acreage, Mac Marshall, vice president of market intelligence at the United Soybean Board, said at the Paris Grain Conference.

NOTE: US farmers planted 87.5m acres of soybeans in 2022: USDA

Area still hinges on the ultimate size of the Brazilian soybean harvest and how much damage Argentina’s crop has suffered from drought, which will impact prices and the soybean-corn ratio

SovEcon Raises Ukraine’s 2023 Wheat-Crop Estimate to 18.2m Tons

SovEcon raised its estimate for Ukraine’s 2023 wheat crop by 0.6m tons to 18.2m tons, it said in a statement.

  • Cites good winter conditions
  • Says the majority of key wheat regions received 80%-110% of normal precipitation in the last three months, without cold weather threatening plants
  • Raised the 2022 corn crop estimate by 0.2m tons to 26.5m tons on bigger harvested area estimate

Ukraine 2023 Grain, Oilseed Harvest Could Fall to ~53M Tons: UGA

That compares to about 67.5m tons in 2022 and more than 106m tons in 2021, according to a presentation from Nikolay Gorbachev, president of the Ukrainian Grain Association, at the Paris Grain Conference.

  • Farmers have already curbed wheat plantings and are expected to reduce the corn area, he said

Brazil Soy Outlook Cut by 3% in Key Area Due to Drought: Report

Soybean production in Brazil’s second-largest producer of Parana is cut to 20.7m tons from last month’s estimate, the state’s rural economy institute Deral says in a report.

  • Drought and heat hurt yields in western Parana after lower temperatures delayed crop development, Deral analyst Marcelo Garrido said by phone
  • Ratings have deteriorated, with 81% of the crop deemed good and 4% bad as of Jan. 24
    • That compares with 90% good and 1% bad in late December
  • Crop outlook remains above the 12.3m tons produced last season amid severe drought
  • Estimate for winter-corn output is unchanged at 15.4m tons, a rise of 16% over last year if realized
  • Summer-corn production is seen at 3.7m tons, also unchanged from last month’s report

Argentina Rains Halted Deterioration of Soy Plants, Bourse Says

Rains in recent days across central areas “have put the breaks on soy crop deterioration,” the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

  • Big yield losses are nevertheless still forecast after the dryness in Nov., Dec. and much of Jan.
  • More rains seen over the next week will continue to help plants
  • 54% of soybeans are in a poor or very poor condition vs. 60% last week, according to a separate report
  • Rains are also helping late-planted corn, though they have come too late to save the early crop

China Will Buy ‘Substantial’ Amount of Brazilian Corn: USDA

Brazilian corn will represent a “substantial amount” of imports for top world buyer China this year after the first vessel of the yellow grain from the South American country arrived earlier in January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agriculture Service says in a report.

  • Chinese mills “have resumed mixing more corn in feed rations” due to higher prices for alternatives such as wheat and sorghum
  • An estimated 900k tons of Brazilian corn was en route to China by mid-December, USDA says citing industry contracts
  • USDA attaché expects 18m tons for total corn imports in China for the season, unchanged from the agency’s official outlook

USDA attaché sees Australia 2022/23 wheat crop at 37 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Canberra:

“Australia is set for a third consecutive record grain crop, and strong exports. Wheat production is estimated to have reached a record 37 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, while barley is estimated to achieve 13.5 MMT of production, the fourth largest on record. The wheat and barley results were strongly supported by near ideal conditions in Western Australia and South Australia, but this was partially offset by excessive rains in much of the grain-growing regions of New South Wales and Victoria in September and October 2022. Wheat exports in MY 2022/23 are forecast to reach a record 28 MMT. For the summer crops, sorghum production in MY 2022/23 is estimated to achieve 2.9 MMT and, if realized, would be the third largest on record. The rice production forecast has been severely impacted by excessive rains in the lead up to planting, resulting in only around half of the area planted from what was previously expected.”

Farmers in India Increase Planting of Winter-Sown Crops

Wheat planting in the world’s second-biggest grower rose to 34.19m hectares (84.5m acres) as of Jan. 27 from 34.06m hectares a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

  • The area under winter-sown pulses increased to 16.54m hectares, from 16.45m hectares, the ministry said on Friday. Planting of oilseeds rose to 10.83m hectares, from 10.05m hectares, it said. Sowing operations are still continuing in some parts of the country.

Indonesia Considers Plan to Tighten Grip Over Palm Oil Exports

Indonesia, the biggest palm oil supplier, is studying rules that would require exporters to trade at least some of their oil on local exchanges before shipping it overseas in order to improve control and data transparency.

The goal is to have a reference price for a specific palm oil product from the exchanges which can be used to calculate taxes and export levies, said Didid Noordiatmoko, acting head of the Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Agency, known as Bappebti. It would also offer more clarity on supply and demand, helping efforts to ensure the local market is well supplied, he said.

Surging domestic prices forced the government to suspend palm oil exports temporarily last April, causing turmoil on global and local markets, something Jakarta would not want to repeat. The country, one of the largest commodity exporters, is more generally trying to increase control over pricing and supply, and seeking to move up the value chain in terms of overseas sales.

The Cikasungka palm oil processing factory in Bogor Regency in West Java.

“We’ve seen many companies selling palm oil to their sister companies, which most likely includes transactions involving so-called special prices,” said Noordiatmoko, justifying the plan. This means that government tax revenue from palm oil is probably not as much as it should be, he said.

US Grain Shipments on Miss. River Rise, Barge Rates Down: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 669k tons in the week ending Jan. 21 from 547k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

  • Barge shipments of corn rose 55% from the previous week
  • Soybean shipments up 3% w/w
  • St. Louis barge rates were $17.83 per short ton, a decline of $1.44 from the previous week

Fertilizer Prices Drop to Lowest in Over a Year

US fertilizer prices are at their lowest levels in over a year, according to the latest assessment from agricultural data provider DTN. The firm reports prices are now at their lowest level seen since this time last year for the eight major fertilizer varieties they track. The drop in fertilizer prices comes as natural-gas prices continue to plummet, with those prices trading at their lowest level since April 2021. “So, finally, some good news for producers in the retail fertilizer markets, as these are the lowest prices we have seen in roughly 15 months,” Russ Quinn of DTN says. “This is especially true for those farmers who are still in the market for their fertilizer needs for the 2023 growing season.”

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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