Global Ag News For Aug 3.22

HEADLINES TODAY

Wheat prices overnight are up 13 1/2 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 19 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 1/4; Soybeans up 3 1/4; Soymeal down $0.14; Soyoil up 0.75.

For the week and month so far wheat prices are down 23 3/4 in SRW, down 22 3/4 in HRW, down 19 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 22 3/4; Soybeans down 75 1/2; Soymeal down $1.57; Soyoil down 3.41.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 2% in SRW, up 6% in HRW, down -10% in HRS; Corn is up 0%; Soybeans up 19%; Soymeal up 18%; Soyoil up 16%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 22) Soybeans up 49 yuan; Soymeal down 2; Soyoil up 40; Palm oil down 186; Corn up 13 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 77 ringgit (+2.00%) at 3918.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,653 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 164 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 2 were: SRW Wheat up 3,734 contracts, HRW Wheat down 698, Corn up 14,614, Soybeans down 2,673, Soymeal down 1,248, Soyoil up 3,591.

Northern Plains Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers north Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday. Outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday, south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Wednesday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Aug. 2 had funds: net sellers of 7,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 7,500 corn, sellers of 6,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 5,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency, OAIC, is believed to have bought around 660,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in an import tender
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 tonnes of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in a tender
• FEED CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 55,000 tonnes of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from South Africa in an international tender that closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy 122,103 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in regular tenders that will close on Aug. 4.
• WHEAT, FEED BARLEY TENDER: Tunisia’s state grains agency issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 100,000 tonnes of soft wheat and 50,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills issued a tender to buy an estimated 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat sourced from the United States and 50,000 tonnes from Australia
• WHEAT, FEED BARLEY TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines issued tenders to purchase about 150,000 tonnes of millling/animal feed wheat and about 150,000 tonnes of feed barley

PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 92,100 tonnes of rice to be sourced from the United States, China and other origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley
• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency, OAIC, on Sunday issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat, to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association issued an international tender to purchase 50,910 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending July 29 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.02m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.263m bbl vs 23.328m a week ago

Corn Shipment Out of Ukraine on Track

The first on-water shipment of corn out of Ukraine since the start of the war–which departed from Odessa yesterday–has so far progressed without incident, opening the door for more shipments to make their way out of the war-torn country. “Another 15 ships are lined up to follow it as they seek to finally exit Ukraine ports after being trapped there since February,” Arlan Suderman of StoneX says in a note, adding that each of these ships are carrying roughly 10,000 metric tons to 60,000 tons of grain. However, Suderman adds, it’s still unclear about the path vessels will take on their journey back to Odessa, and issues about ensuring the ships and hiring adequate crews to run them remain.

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 5.101 Million Tns In August – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 5.101 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 5.792 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN SAME YEAR AGO MONTH – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.639 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 1.279 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN SAME YEAR AGO MONTH – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.221 MILLION TNS IN AUGUST VERSUS 4.193 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN SAME YEAR AGO MONTH – ANEC

Barchart Forecasts Decrease in US Corn and Soybeans Production and Yield in August 2022 Report

• U.S. Corn Production – Forecast at 14.7B bu with a yield of 177.8 bu/ac. This compares to the USDA’s 14.5B bu of production and 177 bu/ac yield.
• U.S. Soybean Production – Forecast at 4.6B bu with a yield of 51.4 bu/ac. This compares to the USDA’s 4.5B bu of production and 51.5 bu/ac yield.

First ship carrying Ukrainian grain sighted off Turkish coast -witness

The first ship carrying Ukrainian grain to world markets was sighted in the Black Sea off the coast of Turkey on Tuesday, a Reuters witness said, ahead of an inspection scheduled for Wednesday morning.

The vessel, the Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni, left the Ukrainian port of Odesa on Monday and the Turkish Defence Ministry said it was expected to reach the entrance to the Istanbul straits around 9 p.m.

Canada’s Wheat and Canola Crops Thrive Despite Weather Woes

• Crops see turnaround in July amid better weather: FarmLink
• Spring planting delayed in areas amid cool, wet weather

Canada’s wheat and canola crops are faring better than expected after spring planting was hampered by weather that was too wet or too dry.

Output of non-durum wheat in the northern nation will probably climb 40% to 26.6 million tons, according to estimates from Winnipeg, Manitoba-based FarmLink. Canola production will probably rise 59% to 20 million tons.

“The crop caught up a bit in July, it’s not as far behind as it was,” said Neil Townsend, FarmLink’s chief market analyst. “We think the outcome is going to be a good crop.”

The turnaround comes after crops in Canada’s western Prairies faced lingering drought conditions at the start of the season and parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba were walloped with a series of storms and below-normal temperatures. Canada is the world’s largest canola grower and a major wheat exporter.

Ukraine planning to harvest up to 20 mln tonnes of wheat – PM – Interfax Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire

Ukraine is planning to harvest up to 20 million tonnes of wheat, fivefold more than needed for domestic consumption, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

“Around 12 million tonnes have already been harvested as of the end of July. We expect to harvest up to 20 million tonnes of wheat alone, which is fivefold more than domestic needs. Therefore it is crucial for us to help farmers safeguard and deliver the new harvest,” Shmyhal was quoted as saying by Ukrainian media at a government meeting on Tuesday.

Resumption of agricultural product exports from the Port of Odesa is important in connection with this, he said.

“First of all, this provides the ability to increase foreign currency revenue and the income of businesses. Not only in the agricultural sector, where hundreds of thousands of people work, but in related industries, as well. The second aspect: Ukraine remains an important player on the global food market,” Shmyhal said.

According to the Ukrainian Agrarian Policy and Food Ministry, 48-50 million tonnes of grains could be gathered in the country’s new harvest on the whole.

According to the July forecast of the Ukrainian Grain Association, the wheat harvest is expected to total 20.8 million tonnes in 2022, up 8.3% from the previous forecast, while the forecast for corn was raised 4.6% to 27.3 million tonnes and the forecast for barley was left unchanged at 6.6 million tonnes. The overall forecast for Ukraine’s grain and oilseed harvest in 2022 has been raised 4.4% compared to the previous forecast in May to 69.4 million tonnes from 66.5 million tonnes.

The Ukrainian Grain Association also forecasts wheat and corn exports for the 2022-2023 agricultural marketing year at 10 million tonnes each and barley exports at 2 million tonnes.

According to the Ukrainian State Statistics Service, Ukraine saw a record grain and pulse harvest in 2021 at 85.7 million tonnes, up 32% over 2020, harvesting 32.07 million tonnes of wheat, up 28.9%, 41.87 million tonnes of corn, up 38.2%, and 9.42 million tonnes of barley, up 23.3%.

Malaysia July 1-31 Palm Oil Exports to India 270,095 Tons: SGS

• India imported 270,095 tons; +120.6% m/m
• EU imported 244,437 tons; -23% m/m
• South Africa imported 144,055 tons; +176.9% m/m
• Rest of Asean imported 82,320 tons; +24.5% m/m
• China imported 81,490 tons; -34.8% m/m

US Agriculture Sentiment Rises in July: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index increased to 103 points in July from 97 in June, according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component improved by 10 points from June
• Future expectations up by 4 points

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 11% Y/y in Season Through July 31

EU soft-wheat exports during the season that began July 1 totaled 1.84m tons as of July 31, compared with 1.66m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Wednesday on its website.

• Top destinations as of Aug. 1 were Morocco (430k tons), Algeria (226k tons), Pakistan (160k tons)
• EU barley exports at 585k tons, compared with 1.47m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports at 1.62m tons, compared to 1.23m tons a year earlier

Manitoba Says Spring Wheat Crop Mostly Rated Good-to-Excellent

Crop quality varies widely with southern areas of the province in better condition than areas further north, the province’s agriculture ministry says Tuesday in a report.

• Canola crops are rated 15% excellent, 60% good and 25% fair
• Increased demand for insecticide has “stretched supplies” and some crop protection companies are closely watching inventories
• A few insect concerns have popped up in localized areas

Russian Invasion Prompts CME to Consider New Wheat Futures

• Exchange is mulling a contract for Romanian wheat, people say
• Grain traders are shying away from current Black Sea contract

CME Group Inc. is considering new wheat futures as traders shy away from the existing Black Sea contract due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Chicago-based bourse, one of the world’s largest derivative exchanges, has been consulting with traders and brokers on starting a contract for Romanian wheat, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. No final decision has been made and talks may not result in a new product, they said.

The move comes after interest in the current Black Sea contract — based on the price of Russian wheat — tumbled following the invasion of Ukraine in February. While the existing futures are cash settled, many grain traders and agricultural processors have steered clear of any deals involving Russian products.

The new Romanian contract would be cash settled and based on price assessments by S&P Global Platts, the people said. Negotiations are at early stages, and recent news of the first grain shipment to sail from Ukrainian ports earlier this week may help provide relief to market participants who would prefer to stick to the existing contract.

Russian fertilizer supplies return to near-normal levels -CF Industries

Supplies of fertilizer from Russia, outside of ammonia, have returned to near-normal levels, CF Industries CF.N executive Bert Frost said on Tuedsay, after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted shipments.

Russia is a major exporters of fertilizer, key to keeping corn, soy, rice and wheat yields high.

Fertilizer Plants Curb Capacity in Europe After Gas Costs Surge

• Output shut or curtailed at 10 plants, Fertilizer Europe says
• Industry body calls on EU to cut dependence on Russian gas

Europe’s fertilizer industry closed or curtailed output at 10 plants in July as gas costs soar and global urea prices drop, undermining their competitiveness.

Gas prices have surged since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, with Moscow squeezing supplies to Europe in response to Western sanctions. Gas is the main input for nitrogen-rich ammonia fertilizer, while urea is a basic product of those plants.

Fertilizer Europe, which announced the output curbs on Tuesday, is calling on the European Union to move away from Russian gas, energy and raw materials. The industry body didn’t name the companies that have curtailed production.

In July, the European fertilizer giant Yara International announced it had curtailed several sites due to the energy crisis and warned of more cuts. Similarly, Borealis, another European producer, earlier said it was considering plant halts for economic reasons.

Fertilizer Europe urged the EU to pay close attention to fertilizer application in the coming season to maintain the region’s agricultural advantages in the face of drought conditions.

Lebanon to Free Ship Accused of Carrying Stolen Ukrainian Grain

• Syrian vessel blamed for moving barley, wheat loaded in Crimea
• Ukraine says Russia is stealing grain but Kremlin denies that

Lebanon will release a ship carrying barley and wheat flour after authorities concluded the grains weren’t stolen from Ukraine.

The Syrian-registered Laodicea was seized last week after Ukraine’s embassy said the cargo originated from Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Kherson in southeastern Ukraine and was loaded at Feodosia in the Russian-occupied peninsula of Crimea.

The investigation “didn’t prove the existence of a criminal offense, as it was not found that the goods were stolen,” Public Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat said in an interview. The ship’s owner “came to the investigation and handed over papers and documents that showed no suspicions about the goods.”

Race Against Tight Natural Gas, Soft Demand; Eye on 2H Nitrogen

The deepening natural gas crisis poses an upside risk to 2H nitrogen pricing, even while demand softens as farmers resist high nutrient prices. The world’s largest urea importers — Brazil and India — make seasonal imports into 4Q. Fill programs from publicly traded CF Industries are early indicators for higher ammonia prices in 4Q, with little pricing relief in sight for already stretched farmers.

Nitrogen Import Demand to Pick Up

Nitrogen prices should firm into 4Q, due to crop seasonality and sharply higher input costs. A strong dollar has made an already pricey crop input more expensive. Ammonia prices are forecast to rise into the winter, albeit countered by the additional supply from Saudi Arabia’s Ma’aden. European gas futures suggest an ammonia cost of production above $1,600/mt free on board (FOB) in 4Q, though we expect significant demand destruction at that level to temper the price gain. Russian fertilizer continues to flow at levels higher than initially expected following the February invasion, but at prices $5-$20 per metric tons (mt) below the spot market.

Chinese urea exports, officially banned through May, appear unlikely to resume significantly in 3Q despite a five-year operating-rate high.