Global Ag News
TODAY—FND FOR SEP FUTURES—EXPORT INSPEC—CROP PROGRESS/CONDITIONS
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 9 cents, HRW up 8; HRS Wheat up 6, Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 14; Soymeal up $4.00, and Soyoil up 50 points.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 13 cents; HRW up 16; HRS up 10; Corn was up 19 cents; Soybeans up 45;
Soymeal up $12.00, and; Soyoil up 160 points. Crushing margins were down 2 cents at $0.96; Oil share was unchanged at 34%.
For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 19 cents; HRW up 26; HRS up 18; Corn is up 37 cents; Soybeans up 72;
Soymeal up $16.00, and; Soyoil up 300 points. Crushing margins are down 3 cents at 96, Oil share unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 25 yuan in soybeans, unchanged in Corn, up 28 in Soymeal, up 46 in Soyoil, and up 90 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were closed for holiday.
U.S. Weather Forecast: The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has both models indicating little in the way of rains for most of the region; some light rains are seen for Wisconsin and western Minnesota but, both models indicate little to no rains for IA, IL, IN and OH; temps will run average to below in most of the region for the week ahead and then temps look to fall to below average for the weekend and first half of next week.
The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest is average to below average rainfall and below average temps across the Midwest.
The 6-10 day forecast for the Southern Plains is mixed with the models; the GFS has light rains for southern Kansas as well as the eastern half of Oklahoma and Texas; the European model has moderate rainfall for the panhandles; temps will run average to below average this week.
The 6-10 day forecast for the Delta sees light to moderate rainfall in most of the region.
The player sheet had funds net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 3,000 Corn; bought 12,000 Soybeans; net bought 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 15,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 49,000 Corn; net long 149,000 Soybeans; net long 11,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 73,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,300 contracts; HRW Wheat down 8,100; Corn down 18,300; Soybeans up 5,600 contracts; Soymeal up 6,500 lots, and; Soyoil down 3,700.
Deliveries were 379 Soymeal; ZERO Soyoil; ZERO Rice; ZERO Corn; 40 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; 2 Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; 1,386 HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (Soyoil down 51)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,581 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387.
Tender Activity—Pakistan bought 320,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea seeks 70,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Egypt seeks 3,000t optional-origin soyoil, 2,000t sunoil—
Iowa, the biggest U.S. corn-producing state, is facing its most widespread drought since September 2013, the state agriculture secretary said, compounding problems for farmers after a damaging windstorm; the drought threatens to lower crop yields and grain quality even more for farmers who are also struggling with ripple effects from the COVID-19 pandemic; the scope of the losses will be determined by whether the state remains painfully dry.
Speculators have been on a buying streak in Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds, which is rare for the time of year given the typical certainties around supply; crop prospects in the United States have been clipped by dry weather, though export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans is booming.
Alberta Crop Conditions as of August 25, 2020; favorable weather conditions, particularly in South and Central regions, have allowed most Alberta producers to start harvesting spring seeded crops; early harvest progress in all regions are close to the previous five-year (2015-19) average
Chinese wheat prices are expected to remain under pressure, as imports have been large and China seems likely to fill the entire wheat quota this year, says at StoneX; many wheat farmers have been slow sellers because they were betting on higher prices; now corn has been falling, alternatives are getting imported and the new crop for corn is coming, all putting pressure on prices; while government reserve purchases have been slow this year, he thinks they will pick up in the next few months as farmers sell more.
U.S. corn exports to China is likely to remain strong over the next few months in part because African swine fever has now been brought under control, Capital Economics says; China’s hog numbers are rising again and are boosting demand for animal feed; tis should be supportive for prices, despite ample [corn] supply; it notes that weekly data showed corn prices rose last week as U.S. corn exports to China were higher and after China’s pledge to continue to buy more U.S. corn.
China’s hog numbers are rising again as swine fever is brought under control, increasing the odds that US exports will support corn prices over the next few months, Capital Economics says; futures have been oscillating between hopes of greater exports and fears of excessive supply; moreover, CE expects commodities in general to benefit from the US Fed’s decision to let inflation run hotter for longer, which could weaken the dollar; signs of global economic recovery are also expected to boost prices next week, although CE warns China may report some disappointing PMI data
BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 88.4% OF 2019/2020 SECOND CORN AREA COMPARED WITH 90.4% IN 5-YEAR HISTORICAL AVERAGE – ARC MERCOSUL
Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR said on Monday that it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2020 wheat crop to 82.8 million tons from the previously expected 82.5 million tons.
Russia’s August exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 5.4 million tons, up from 3.0 million tons estimated in July, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said.
Russian wheat export prices rose sharply last week after prices for Chicago and Paris futures rose and on strong demand from a large buyer, analysts said; Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports and for supply in September was at $211 a ton free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $9 from the previous week, agriculture consultancy IKAR said; Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, pegged wheat at $206 a ton
Ukrainian wheat export prices have risen $5 per ton over the last week due to higher demand from importers, analyst APK-Inform said; APK-Inform said in a report that Ukrainian 12.5 protein wheat was traded at around $204-207 per ton FOB Black Sea; wheat with 11.5 protein content added $5-$6 per ton to $203-$206 per ton FOB Black Sea, the consultancy said.
Ukrainian sunflower oil export prices have risen by $15-25 per ton over the past week amid a high demand from importers and a possible decrease in the 2020 sunflower seed harvest and sunoil output, the APK-Inform consultancy said; Ukrainian sunoil was traded between $820 and $840 per ton FOB Black Sea for delivery in September-October.
European wheat prices ended Friday little changed after hitting or equaling new one-month highs every day this week due to a rally in Chicago, concern over global supplies and technical buying; benchmark December milling wheat was down 0.1% to 186.50 euros a ton after matching a five-week high of 187.00 euros hit in the previous session; it has gained 10 euros in about two weeks.
Should Australia’s winter crop such as wheat be as large as expected, prices will likely lose some of the current premium they demand above the global market, National Australia Bank says; it adds it expects domestic wheat to trade in the A$300-a-metric-ton range at the end of 2020; an appreciating Australian dollar will also be a pressure point for local prices, while there might be some upside pressure across the grains complex if flooding in China leads to higher Chinese demand; but it is far from clear that these will flow through to wheat.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said on Friday that her government plans to ease restrictions on the import of U.S. beef and pork, potentially easing the way to a trade agreement with the United States.
Plentiful monsoon rains spurred Indian farmers to plant summer crops across a record swathe of farmland 7% bigger than last year, promising a bumper harvest in Asia’s third-biggest economy, despite the rapid spread of coronavirus; farm ministry data shows growers sowed 108.2 million hectares (267.4 million acres) with crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans and sugarcane; planting began on June 1, when monsoon rains typically hit India, where nearly half of farmland does not receive irrigation; we’re confident that food production will cross the target of 298.32 million tons in the 2020-21 crop year, said the Farm Minister, praising farmers for the record acreage; such a harvest would outstrip the previous year’s record output of 295.67 million tons.
A federal free food grain distribution program will deplete state-run Food Corporation of India’s stock by 40 million metric tons, giving it enough room to accommodate an expected bumper harvest of summer-sown crops, a senior government official said.
Egypt has strategic wheat reserves for 6 months, its supply minister said on Saturday; the country also has vegetable oil sufficient for 5.4 months.
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