Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
The 8:45 central time February PMI composite manufacturing index is expected to be 47.3 and the services index is anticipated to be 47.2.
The 9:00 January existing home sales report is estimated to be 4.100 million.
Stock index futures declined due to ongoing hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
The upside for futures is likely to be limited in advance of tomorrow’s release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s February 1 policy meeting.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher but has underperformed the news in the last few trading sessions.
The S&P Global euro zone composite PMI increased to 52.3 in February 2023, which is up from 50.3 in the previous month and easily beating the market consensus of 50.6.
The Confederation of British Industry survey’s total order book balance improved slightly to -16 in February 2023, up from a near two-year low of -17 in the previous month but missing market estimates of -14.
The au Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI fell to 47.4 in February 2023 from a final 48.9 reading in the January. This was the fourth consecutive month of contraction in factory activity and the steepest pace since August 2020, as both output and new orders declined by the most since July 2020.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The Treasury will auction two-year notes today.
There are no major Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.
Two Federal Reserve officials last week indicated they would not be adverse to a 50 basis point hike in the fed funds rate at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Most likely the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its March 22 policy meeting and there is more talk of another 25 basis point hike at the May meeting.
There has been lots of hawkish Fed speak lately, while the severely inverted yield curve is getting very little attention.
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