Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed to higher today.
The January durable goods orders report showed a 6.1% decline when down 4.5% was expected.
The 9:00 February consumer confidence index is anticipated to be 115.0.
The February Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index will be released at 9:00. In January the report showed -15.
Stock index futures have performed very well this year despite a Federal Reserve that has made it clear that they are in no hurry to pivot to accommodation.
So, some other bullish fundamentals must be at work to support futures that are not yet obvious.
The fundamentals are mostly bullish, while and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is a little lower.
Interest rate differentials remain supportive to the greenback longer term.
Bank lending to households in the euro zone increased by 0.3% year-on-year in January 2024, which is below market expectations of 0.4%. This marks the slowest pace since March 2015.
The headline inflation rate in Japan slowed to 2.2%, and the core inflation rate in Japan slowed to 2.0% in January, which were the lowest readings since March 2022.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The U.S. Treasury will auction seven-year notes today.
Michael Barr of the Federal Reserve will speak at 8:05.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 2.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at the March 20 meeting, and there is a 98% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged.
The fundamentals and technicals remain bearish on balance for futures.
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