Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down 4 cents and near 11.91. SMK is near 337.5. BOK is near 47.99. CK is down 1 cent and near 4.32. WK is unch and near 5.33. KWK is down 1 cent and near 5.73. MWK is up 1 cent and near 6.57. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Have a Happy St. Patrick’s weekend.
SK is near 11.91. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. C Brazil weather is dry which is helping harvest. Brazil farmer remains a good seller which is offereing resistance to cash premiums and now futures. There is no word of new China buying Brazil soybeans. US soybean export commit is down 20 pct vs ly vs USDA 12 pct drop. Sales need to increase 83 mil bu vs ly to reach USDA goal. US SBM commit is up 19 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 8. NOPA US Feb soybean crush is est at 178 mil bu and record for Feb. Soyoil stocks 1,591 bil lbs or down 12 pct vs ly.
CK is near 4.33. Dry and hot weather continues across Brazil 2nd crop growing areas. Brazil corn futures continue to rally due to slow farmer selling. Corn market full of uncertainty; Brazil corn crop, China demand, Ukraine supply and acres, US 2024 acres and crop weather.Besides Brazil weather, USDA March 28 acreage and stocks report is next key. US export commit is up 27 pct vs ly and USDA up 26 pct. Mexico sales are record and up 32 pct vs ly. China is down 60 pct. Sales need to increase 98 mil bu vs ly to reach USDA goal.
Wheat futures are mixed. Managed funds remain short US futures. North Hemisphere crop areas are dry. US could see cooler temos next week. World wheat trade has slowed. US export commit is up 4 pct vs ly despite China cancellations. USDA goal is down 4 pct. Russia wheat export prices are higher. Matif wheat futures though are lower with carries widening. Russia is still expected to ship 1 mmt of wheat per week vs USDA 453.
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