Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 17 cents and near 14.04. SMN is near 392.5 BON is near 56.18. CN is up 5 cents and near 6.13. WN is up 6 cents and near 6.36. KWN is up 2 cents and near 7.88. MWN is unch and near 8.08. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Fed paused on rate increase but left door open for 2 increases in 2023. China continues to talk about stimulating their economy now with lowering lending rates.
SN is higher. Both the EU and GFS weather models are drier for US Midwest. Soyoil futures have rallied on hope of higher biofuel mandates from EPA. Rosario exchange lowered Argentina soybean crop 1 mmt to 20.5 and vs USDA 25.0. India reduced soyoil and sunoil import duty. India monsoon remains under performing. China announced they will sell 315 mt soybean from reserve. World soymeal values are lower on concern about global feed demand. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 250-550 mt vs 207 last week. New crop 100-350 vs 264 last week. Weekly soymeal sales are est at 150-300 mt vs 177 last week.
CN is higher. Both the EU and GFS weather models are drier for US Midwest. Corn futures have rallied on hope of higher biofuel mandates from EPA. This weeks US ethanol production lagged last week, season to date and USDA estimate. Drop in US water levels has rallied barge freight but export prices are still soft due to slow export demand. Weekly US corn export sales are est near -100-550 mt vs 172 last week. New crop 0-350 vs -106 last week.
Wheat futures are higher but new news is limited. Matif wheat futures are lower on talk of French rains. This and lower Russia prices limits upside in US futures. Putin warned of end to Ukraine export corridor deal. West Canada prairies could see needed rains. N EU, Ukraine and Russia spring wheat areas remain dry. Argentina is dry and crop est is down to 16.2 mmt vs USDA 19.5. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-450 mt vs 235 last week.
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