Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is up 7 cents and near 12.04. SMK is near 337.8. BOK is near 48.83. CK is unch and near 4.41. WK is down 5 cents and near 5.38. KWK is down 5 cents and near 5.82. MWK is down 3 cents and near 6.59. US stocks are higher US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and back near $80. Cocoa is over 7,000.
SK is near 12.04 and 5 week high. BOK is near 9 week high. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Futures continued higher after Conab lowered Brazil crop to 147 mmt vs USDA 155. C Brazil weather is dry which is helping harvest. Brazil farmer is a good seller which is offering resistance to cash premiums. There is no word of new China buying Brazil soybeans. US export sales are est near 250-800 mt. NOPA US Feb soybean crush is est at 178 mil bu and record for Feb. Soyoil stocks 1,591 bil lbs or down 12 pct vs ly.
CK is near 4.41. Conab est the Brazil corn crop at 112.7 mmt vs USDA 124. Combined Brazil and Argentina 2024 crop is down 6 mmt vs ly. Dry and hot weather continues across Brazil 2nd crop growing areas. Brazil corn futures continue to rally due to slow farmer selling. Corn market full of uncertainty; Brazil corn crop, China demand, Ukraine supply and acres, US 2024 acres and crop weather. One group est US 2024 corn crop at a record 15,520 mil bu. Record 181.9 yield. US export sales are est at 800-1,400 mt.
Wheat futures are lower. China cancelled 500 mt French wheat and are rumored to cancel open Australia sales. Cancelled French sales increase French stocks to 19 year high. Managed funds remain short US futures for any 2024 weather issue. North Hemisphere crop areas are dry. World wheat trade has slowed. US export sales are est at -200-500 mt. Wheat rallies limited given higher Russia and EU supplies and lower prices and now China cancelling open sales, US, French and Australia.
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