BQC Afternoon Comments Aug 29.2025

Ag Fundamentals: I am curious to see how the funds/managed money positions closed out the week. Buying and short covering today in corn due to doubts of 200-400M bushels dropping off of the USDA’s total production estimate. In the last few weeks I have talked to dozens of folks around the country about this year’s US crop situation. Not many are believing the 188+ bpa corn yield. Most are in the <185 boat. No major concerns with quality other than the occasional areas with some rust. Pollination uniformity this year was not the best in every field, but overall hard to make a solid argument against 182+ bpa. In the past 18 years it has been twice as likely to see a drop in yield estimates from August to final.
Harvest pace is the focus. Dry weather has been a conversation in Illinois, Kentucky and East to Ohio. North Dakota and Central Illinois will not see rain in the next 7-10 days. Early planted beans will be fine, there was plenty of rain in July, but the late planted beans could see pods drop off. I don’t see the dryness effecting corn yields in a big way, but it may force a more speedy harvest in a month or so.
The Ohio River Valley has dried up in the last month and we are now looking at another potential river level issue on the lower Mississippi. Memphis has already dropped from full barge drafts at 12’0 to 11’6. Expectations suggest we will move lower as the river levels. Higher barge freight due to lighter loads will leak into the rail and truck fright markets if this continues. If this puts pressure on the gulf meeting obligations, there could be a spike in rail bids to fulfill execution. There is a small percent chance moisture kicks up from the Gulf, but no hurricanes on the horizon in the next 10 days.
Domestic processing for corn and beans is strong, corn exports are strong. Feed lots have taken a pause buying Q4 protein due to the expectations of an abundant crop around the corner should bring feed prices lower. South America will start planting soybeans this weekend and through next week. No monsoon showers have dropped yet, but it is still early to be concerned.