Written Commentary
USDA WASDE PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS
Big surprises in today’s USDA data which featured another shift in soybean acres to corn.
Bearish for corn, huge production however also huge demand.
Supportive for soybeans as acreage shifts tighten stocks significantly. Record US yields to keep stocks from tightening further.
Wheat mostly neutral however prices tilting lower in sympathy with lower corn.
Corn:
- Old crop 24/25 ending stocks down 35 mil. to 1.305 bil. slightly below expectations
- Exports raised another 70 mil. bu. FSI usage down 35 mil.
- 2025 harvested acres up nearly 2 mil. to 88.69 mil. Ave. yield up 7.8 bpa to record 188.8 bpa
- Production up nearly 1 bil. bu. to record 16.742 bil. roughly 750 mil. above expectations
- New crop 25/26 demand up 545 mil. bu. to nearly 16 bil.
- US ending stocks just over 2.1 bil. 215 mil. above expectations
- Global stocks up 10.5 mmt to 282.5 mmt, above expectations
Soybeans
- Old crop 24/25 ending stocks down 20 mil. to 330 mil. slightly below expectations
- Exports and crush both raised 10 mil. bu.
- 2025 harvested acres down 2.4 mil. from July to 80.1 mil. Ave. yield up 1.1 bpa to record 53.6 bpa
- Production down 43 mil. bu. to 4.292 bil. roughly 75 mil. below expectations
- New crop 25/26 exports were cut 40 mil. bu.
- US ending stocks projected to fall to 290 mil. below the range of estimates
- Global stocks down 1 mmt to 125 mmt
Wheat
- All US wheat production little changed at 1.927 bil. bu.
- Winter wheat production increased 10 mil. to 1.355 bil. roughly 10 mil. above expectations
- Spring wheat production down 19 mil. to 485 mil., durum up 7 mil. to 87 mil. bu.
- Demand raised 20 mil. with exports up 25 mil. food usage down 5 mil.
- Ending stocks cut 21 mil. to 869 mil. nearly 15 mil. below expectations
- World stocks down 1.5 mmt to 260 mmt, at the low end of expectations
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