Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down 1 cent and near 15.21. SMK is near 458.8. BOK is near 57.12. CK is down 4 cents and near 6.54. WK is up 4 cents and near 6.98. KWK is up 9 cents and near 8.85. MWK is up 7 cents and near 8.99. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $81. Silver, copper, cocoa and cotton are higher. Coffee and sugar are lower.
On Monday corn futures gave back most of early gains and closed lower. Corn futures area lower overnight. There was some increase in US farmer selling as cash prices neared 7.00. They are still reluctant sellers of new crop. US corn plantings are at 2 pct and near average and last year. Could be more delays in south and north but Midwest should be warmer and drier for planting. Weekly US exports were at the high end of trade guess and USDA announced a sale to Mexico. Still some concern about lower Ukraine 2023 crop. US domestic cash basis is strong suggesting once US crop is planted futures could rally.
Soybean futures are mixed with soyoil gaining on soymeal. US domestic soymeal basis is lower. Demand for US domestic soyoil and firm World vegoil prices support soyoil. Interesting that US crushers may need to import Brazil soybeans for soyoil demand. Argentina may also import a record 10 mmt Brazil soybeans. There is talk of low quality and green beans in Argentina. Brazil yield are higher with 2/3 crop harvested. There is talk of a 157 mmt crop. Brazil March soybean exports were record 13.3 mmt and up 9 pct yoy. USDA April supply and demand key to US 2022/23 soybean carryout and if futures push higher.
On Monday, wheat futures sold off from highs. There was talk of small amounts of wheat into US. US north plains look for more snow this week then turn warmer next week. This should start record snow melt, increase flooding and delay plantings. US SW remains dry. USDA rated the US WW crop only 28 pct G/E, lowest since 1989 and second lowest on record. This helped rebound wheat futures overnight. Lower US Dollar could help wheat futures. Large Managed fund short could also trigger some short covering especially over 7.27 WK.
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