Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The entire complex surged higher in the last hour of trade finishing at or near session highs. Beans finished up $.19 – $.24, meal was $6 – $9 higher, while oil was up 70 – 85. May-24 beans closed above its 50 day for the first time in 3 months, however stopped shy of last week’s intraday high at $12.17 ½. May-24 meal also stopped just below last week’s high at $344.50, which is also very close to its 50 day MA. May-24 oil held support above 48 cents closing back above its 100 day MA of 48.63. Spot board crush margins bounced $.04 ½ to $.83 bu., while meal PV gained a bit to 58.3%. Technical strength along with some suggesting recent heavy rains/flooding may have done more damage to late maturing SA beans than previously expected. Another wave of rainfall is expected across NE Argentine and RGDS in southern Brazil before a dryer pattern sets in. Additional crop damage due to flooding is possible. The USDA announced the sale of 120k tons (4.4 mil. bu.) of new crop 2024/25 soybeans to an unknown buyer. Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to reach 14 mmt in Mch-24 above their previous forecast of 13.7 mmt. If realized they would exceed Mch-23 exports by nearly 6% and would be a record high for the month. Of the 13 mmt of soybeans imported by China in Jan/Feb nearly 7 mmt were from Brazil, with 5 mmt from the US. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 10 – 25 mil. bu. soybeans, 150 – 400k tons meal, and -6 – 16k tons of soybean oil.
CORN
Prices were mostly higher as spreads continues to widen. Another inside trading day for May-24 with resistance at the 50 day MA at $4.43 ½. Support is at LW low at $4.31 ¾. Dec-24 recovering trading up to a 6 week high. Next resistance is at $4.81. Rains will begin to fill in over much of central and northern growing regions of Brazil this weekend thru the following week helping restore soil moisture for the 2nd crop corn. In the US heavy rains are forecast for dry areas in IA, MN and WI late thru the middle of next week. Ethanol production rebounded to 1,046 tbd last week, up from 1,024 tbd the previous week. Production was at the high end of expectations and above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast of 5.375 bil. There was 104.8 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 14.97 mil. bu. per day, vs. 14.54 mbd needed to reach USDA. Ethanol stocks increased to 26 mil. barrels, up from 25.8 mb the previous week and in line with expectations. Gasoline demand slipped 2.6% LW to 8.809 mbd, down 1.7% YOY. Of the 6.2 mmt of corn China imported in Jan/Feb, 4.1 mmt were from Brazil with only .767 mmt from US. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from 30 – 55 mil. bu.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes with Chicago down $.05 – $.08, while KC and MGEX were $.10 – $.02 lower. All 3 closing well off morning lows. Chicago May-24 continued to chop sideways between $5.25 – $5.55. Similar story for KC May-24 between $5.50 – $6.05. May-24 MGEX continues to bounce off lows just above $6.40. Romania was the lowest offer for Egypt’s GASC recent wheat tender at $232.50/mt FOB. The wheat is for shipment in mid-May, no results just yet. Algeria reportedly bought 100 – 150k mt of durum wheat in an international tender. No other prices details available. Japan is seeking 119k mt of US, Canadian, or Aussie wheat in a tender which closes tomorrow. My all wheat acreage est. is 47.175 mil. little changed from the USDA 47 mil. in the Feb-24 Outlook however down from 49.6 mil. YA. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from -6 – 16 mil. bu.
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