Written Commentary
CORN
Futures closed near session highs up $.03 – $.04 for the session. May-24 had an inside trading day with near term resistance at the 50 day MA, currently $4.44. Support is at last week’s low of $4.31 ¾. Dec-24 corn rebounded to close above its 50 day MA of $4.71 ½. Light to moderate precipitation is expected to favor the Northern Midwest over the next 5 days. A system late this coming weekend into early next week has the potential to bring heavy precipitation across much of the nation’s midsection, including eastern Iowa, SE MN and WI. Not much change with SA forecast. Chinese corn imports in Feb-24 at 2.6 mmt were down from 3.6 mmt in Jan-24 and 3.1 mmt from Feb-23, however combined Jan/Feb imports at 6.2 mmt are up 16% from YA. The country continues to show a greater acceptance the GMO technology approving another 27 corn seed varieties on Tues. as they continue to strive to become more food independent. Corn yields in China typically run 40 – 45% below the US. Corn plantings in TX have reached 34%, just below YA pace of 37% however in line with historical average. LA at 28% is well below YA at 84% however also in line with 5-year Ave. Tomorrow’s EIA report is expecting ethanol production LW ranged from 1,008 – 1,035 tbd vs. 1,024 tbd the previous week.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed today with soybeans closing within $.02 of unchanged, with spreads widening. Meal firmed up closing $1 – $2 higher, while oil finished 50 – 60 lower. May-24 beans has near term support at $11.75 with resistance at last week’s high at $12.17 ½. Nov-24 beans are finding good support above its 50 day MA at $11.73. May-24 meal for now is locked in a tight $325 – $345 range. May-24 oil finished weak, closing right at yesterday’s low. Spot board crush margins were unchanged however bean oil product value dipped back below 42%. Heavy rainfall since late last week across EC Argentina into Southern Brazil is expected to give way to dryer conditions. Good rains are expected to fill in across central and northern areas of Brazil by the end of the week, providing relief from recent dryness. Argentina is expecting a good mix of sunshine and rain over the next 2 weeks. China approved another 3 varieties of GMO soybean seed on Tues. Similar to corn, Chinese soybean yield typically run 40 – 45% below those achieved in the US. Indonesia’s palm oil exports slipped 25.4% in Feb-24 to 1.6 mil. tons. Sales to India dropped 50% to 327.7k tons while sales to China dropped 31.5% to 200.4k tons.
WHEAT
Prices were higher across all 3 classes today with Chicago and KC up $.08 – $.10 while MGEX finished $.04 – $.05 better. Resistance for May-24 Chicago is at last week’s high at $5.56. Resistance for KC May-24 is at its 50 day MA, currently $5.97 ¼. Grains were supported by news the EU will impose a $104/mt tariffs on grain imports from Russia and Belarus. Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking 119k mt of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada, of Australia in a tender that closes on Thursday. Jordan is tendering for 120k mt of milling wheat in a tender that closes next Monday Mch. 25th. Iraq’s Ministry of Commerce states they have achieved self-sufficiency having almost 2 mmt of wheat. Of the 4 major US states to report winter wheat conditions yesterday, 3 showed improvement. Conditions in KS and TX improved 2% to 55% and 46% G/E respectively. TX also saw a big 9% drop in poor/VP, down to only 19%. Conditions in CO improved 9% to 65% G/E. Oddly enough the state right in between the others slipped 4% to 61% G/E.
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