Ag Market View for Mar 15
Soybeans traded higher. Some talk of lower South America supplies and hope of new China buying US soybeans offered support and offset good rains in Argentina and lower than expected US Feb NOPA soybean crush and weekly US exports. US and China will meet on Thursday in Alaska. Some hope that China may buy some US Ag goods before the meeting. Most look for China to agree to buy US goods under Phase 2 agreement in return US would drop or reduce the 35 pct tariff on China imported goods. Weekly US soybean exports were near 19.0 mil bu versus 18.1 last year. Season to date exports are 1,957.8 versus 1,120.9 last year. USDA goal is 2,250 versus 1,682 last year. Some feel final exports could be closer to 2,275. One group estimate World 2021 soybean crop at 383 mmt vs 364 ly. US 126 mmt vs 112 ly, Brazil 140 mmt vs 136 and Argentina 55 vs 47.
Corn futures traded sharply higher. Some feel funds may have added to longs following increase in positions limits. Others feel prices may need to trend higher due to increase demand above USDA estimate which could drop US carryout. This suggest USDA March 31 estimate of March 1 stocks could be key to prices. Also key will be percent on farm and off farm. Some analyst suggested that July- Sep and July-Dec corn spread could be an indicator of tightening US corn supplies. Spread had lost ground after USDA failed to lower South America crops. Raise US exports and lower carryout on their March supply and demand update. US and China will meet on Thursday in Alaska. Some hope that China may buy some US Ag goods before the meeting. Most look for China to agree to buy US goods under Phase 2 agreement in return US would drop or reduce the 35 pct tariff on China imported goods. Some feel corn futures could drop this fall if US/World has normal summer weather. One group estimate World 2021 corn crop at 1,197 mmt vs 1,132 ly. US 397 mmt vs 360 ly. Same group est April-June average futures prices would be near 5.30 and fall futures near 4.85.
Wheat futures traded higher. Some feel increase in position limits could have supported a higher close. Paris wheat futures were lower. China sold 2.3 mmt of wheat from their reserve for feeding. Weekly US wheat exports were near 25.1 mil bu versus 17.2 last year. This was higher than expected. Season to date exports are 708.3 versus 725.4 last year. USDA goal is 985 versus 965 last year. Financial markets are trying to balance vaccinations and impact that could have on food and fuel demand. Weekend rains were beneficial for US HRW growing areas. 2021 World north hemisphere weather will be key to prices. USDA March 31 acreage report could be key to prices. Most could see US all wheat acres near 45.0 million versus 44.3 last year. One group est July-Sep Chicago futures average near 6.35 and KC near 6.29. Same group est World 2021 wheat crop near 781 mmt versus 777 last year. EU could be near 149 mmt vs 136, FSU 129 mmt vs 139 and US 51 mmt vs 49.
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