Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were $.02 – $.03 higher for the day, $.02 – $.03 lower for the week. Resistance for spot May-24 is at this week’s high at $4.45 with the 50 day MA just above that. Areas of WC Iowa picked up .50”-1.50” yesterday while most of the NE quadrant of the state picked up lighter totals having little impact on current drought conditions. Heaviest rains over the next week will favor the deep south along the gulf coast. Very little moisture is in store for the NW half of the nation’s midsection. The BAGE reports corn conditions slipped 4% to 25% G/E, while 17% of the crop is poor/VP up 4% for the week. Harvest is just underway at 3% complete. A bill to allow the sale of E-15 year-round appears to have hit a hurdle in the US Senate according to the bill’s author, Deb Fisher from NE. The hurdle is getting approval from the Senate Environmental and Public Works Committee which is chaired by Dem. Senator Tom Carper of DE. A NWS meteorologist predicts an 83% probability the current El Nino pattern will end by this Spring. They went on the state there was a 62% probability a LA Nina pattern will develop by the June-August timeframe.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mostly higher with beans up $.02 – $.03, meal was down $2 – $3, while oil surged a full $.01 lb. today. May-24 beans stalled right at $12 and its 50 day MA resistance. May-24 meal quickly rejected trade above its recent high at $343, support below the market is at $323. May-24 oil surged to a fresh 2 month high in an outside day. Next resistance at $.50 lb. While crush margins were little changed, BO PV surged to 42.5%, the highest since October. Little change with SA weather forecasts which remain mostly favorable. Much of Argentina is expecting a good mix of sunshine and precipitation over the next week to 10 days. Biggest concern is the potential for too much rain over already saturated soils in the EC growing regions. A hot/dry pattern remains intact across much of south central Brazil thru the middle of next week. Some relief is expected late next week into the weekend with good coverage of .75” – 1.50”, isolated area possibly more. The BAGE reports bean conditions improved 1% to 30% G/E, while poor/VP slipped 1% to 16%. The USDA officially announced they will be using exporter data to estimate Chinese soybean imports here forward as Chinese custom data seemed to be underreporting their imports. NOPA crush members processed a record 186.2 mil. bu. of soybeans in Feb-24, well above expectations of 178 mil. and a just above the previous record in Jan-24 at 185.8 mil. The Ave. daily crush rate at 6.42 mil. bu. per day, easily beat the previous record of 6.3 mbd in Nov and Dec-23. Oil stocks rose 12% from Jan-24 to 1.690 bil. above the average trade guess of 1.590 bil. however within the range of estimates. Given the much higher than expect crush would suggest strong domestic usage. Today’s NOPA crush data would suggest total crush in Feb-24 at 196 mil. bu., 2nd highest all-time, any month. Cumulative crush over the 1st 6 months of the 23/24 MY 1.172 bil. bu. up 5.6% from YA, vs. the current USDA forecast of up 4%.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with MGEX and KC down $.07 – $.09 while Chicago was $.01 – $.04 lower. Several wheat spreads made new lows today. Support for May-24 Chicago is at the contract low of $5.23 ½. Support for May-24 KC is at $5.51 ½. Taiwan reportedly bought 98k mt of US milling wheat for May/June shipment. No price reported just yet. Russia’s Embassy in the Central African Republic announced they have donated 50k mt of wheat for humanitarian aid. Russia also announced they lowered their wheat export tax 6% to 3,143 roubles/mt for the period ending Mch 26th. Prices are lower across all 3 classes this week as Chinese cancellations have taken the wind out of the sails that drove a modest price recovery.
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