Written Commentary
CORN
Prices were mixed and little changed with mild bear spreading noted. It was an inside day for May-24 with initial resistance at its 50 day MA at $4.47 ¼. Dec-24 corn is chopping around very near its 50 day MA currently $4.73 ½. Heavy rain is expected across the southern Midwest and Delta over the next 5 days likely delaying early corn plantings. Ethanol production dipped to 1,024 tbd last week, down from 1,057 tbd the previous week, however up 1% from YA. Production was below expectations but slightly above the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage forecast of 5.375 bil. There was 102.6 mil. bu. of corn used in the production process, or 14.65 mil. bu. per day, vs. 14.56 mbd needed to reach USDA. Ethanol stocks slipped to 25.8 mil. barrels while implied US gasoline consumption inched up to 9.044 mbd, up 5% from same week YA. For what it is worth in mid-March, Allendale is forecasting US corn acres in 2024 at 93.47 mil. with an Ave. yield of 181.9 bpa and production at a record 15.52 bil. This compares to the USDA Outlook Conf. estimates of 91 mil. acres, 181 bpa yield with production at 15.040 bil. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range between 32 – 55 mil. bu.
SOYBEANS
Prices were mixed with soybeans closing within $.02 of unchanged, meal was down $2 – $3, while oil was 75 – 85 higher. May-24 beans closed just above yesterday’s high while stopping just short of the 50 day MA resistance at $12.03. May-24 meal seems stuck between $323 and $343. A day after surging thru its 50 day MA resistance, May-24 oil briefly pierced its 100 day MA resistance at 48.75 before pulling back a touch. Heavy rains with potential flooding is forecast over the next week from EC Argentina across Uruguay into southern areas of RGDS Brazil. Much of MGDS, northern Parana and western Sao Paulo will remain hot/dry over the next week causing stress for the developing safrinha corn. Better prospects for rain in week 2 of the outlook. Low prices are forcing Brazilian farmers to store much of their recently harvested crop. Datagro reports farmers have sold only 33% of their crop as of Mch 1st, well below the long term average of 48.5%. India’s vegetable oil imports in Feb-24 at 975k tons were down 19% from January. Their palm oil imports plunged 36%, bean oil was down 8% while sunflower oil imports jumped 35%. Spot board crush margins added $.01 today to $.77 ½ bu. with bean oil PV reaching a new 5 month high at 41.9%. NOPA crush on Friday is expected to slip to 178 mil. bu. in Feb-24, down from 185.8 mil. in January, due to few # of days. This however would be well above the previous record for Feb. at 166.3 mil. bu. from 2020. Oil stocks are expected to build to 1.591 bil. lbs. up from 1.507 at the end of Jan-24. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range between 10 – 28 mil. bu. for beans, 150 – 350k tons meal and -2 – 20k tons of oil.
WHEAT
Prices were lower across all 3 classes today with Chicago down $.02 – $.03 while MGEX and KC were $.08 – $.10 lower. Support for May-24 Chicago is at $5.23 ½ with resistance at last week’s high at $5.68. Near term resistance for May-24 KC is at the 50 day MA at $6.01 ½ with secondary resistance at $6.26 ¼. Little to no rain is expected across the northern and southern plains thru the upcoming weekend. Taiwan reportedly bought 120k mt of optional origin feed wheat for June thru July shipment. Prices are estimated to have ranged from $243 – $245/mt CF. Export sales tomorrow are expected to range from -6 – 20 mil. bu.
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