Written Commentary
CORN
From the May-24 contract thru Dec-25 prices closed exactly unchanged. Initial resistance for May-24 is the 50 day MA at $4.48 ¼, followed by $4.63. Dec-24 corn was able to penetrate its 50 day MA at $4.74 ¼ for the first time in a month before settling back. Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast nearly 1 mmt to 112.75 mmt, well below the USDA forecast of 124 mmt. The lower production was due to slightly lower 2nd crop acres and slightly lower yields. Ukraine’s grain trade union suggests their 2024 grain and oilseeds harvest will drop 8% to 76 mmt due to lower acres, higher costs and labor shortages. Their corn forecast at 26.3 mmt would be down 11% from YA and the lowest in 7 years. The Nov-24 bean/Dec-24 corn ratio jumped to over 2.5 today, its highest level in nearly 3 weeks, perhaps in a bid to attract more US bean acres at the expense of corn.
SOYBEANS
Much of the complex surged to new highs into today’s close. Beans finished $.15 – $.17 higher, meal was up $2 – $3, while oil is up 105 – 120. May-24 beans traded to its highest level a month with next resistance at its 50 day MA, currently 12.05 ¼. Resistance for May-24 meal is at $349.70. May-24 oil surged above its 50 day MA closing just shy of $.48 lb. Next resistance is the 100 day MA of $.4880. Spot board crush margins were mostly steady today at $.76 bu. however BO PV jumped to 41.3% a 5 month high. Overall weather for SA remains mixed. Dry areas in center south and west central Brazil are forecast to remain hot/dry for the next week to 10 days with 2nd crop corn stress levels on the rise. Rains are forecast to bring relief days 10 thru 14. Heavy rains with flooding potential is forecast over the next week from EC Argentina across Uruguay into southern areas of RGDS Brazil. Much of the northern growing regions of Brazil will see a mix of scattered showers and sunshine over the next 7 – 10 days. Additional moisture is needed thru April to support 2nd crop corn development. Conab lowered their Brazilian production forecast another 2.5 mmt to 146.9 mmt, below the USDA forecast of 155 mmt. The lower production was a result of lower yields which were trimmed to 3.251 mt/HA, down from 3.314 last month and 3.40 YA. Ukraine’s grain union forecasts their sunflower crop at 13.7 mmt down 5.5% from YA.
WHEAT
Prices closed mixed in choppy 2 sided trade. While Chicago and KC were steady to slightly lower, MGEX held on to close $.02 higher. Resistance for May-24 Chicago is the Feb-24 high at $5.76 ¾. KC May-24 briefly pierced its 50 day MA at $6.02 ¾ before backing up at midday. There were no new wheat cancellations to China today. The US Midwest will see above normal temperatures gradually give way to below normal reading by this weekend which is expected to trend thru month-end. Heavy rain this week across the southern Midwest and Delta will delay early corn plantings. Little to no rain is expected across the northern and southern plains. Conab lowered their Brazilian wheat production forecast by .6 mmt to 9.6 mmt, still above the USDA est. of 8.1 mmt. India’s Food Corporation indicates their wheat stocks as of have fallen to 9.7 mmt, down from 11.7 mmt YA and the lowest March figure in 7 years. Ukraine’s grain union forecasts their 2024 wheat crop at 20 mmt, down 14.5% from YA and if realized would be the lowest in 12 years. With the lower production exports are expected to fall to 13 mmt for the 24/25 MY, down from 16 mmt in 23/24. Winter wheat conditions in both KS and OK held steady last week at 53% and 65% G/E respectively. There was a 1% improvement in TX to 44%, however there was also a 2% increase in VP to 9%. Fair fell by 3%.
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