Written Commentary
SOYBEANS
The soybean complex was lower across the board in choppy 2 sided trade. Soybeans were down $.04 – $.06, soybean oil down 30 – 50, while meal was $4 – $7 lower. May-23 soybeans held above yesterday’s low and its 50 day MA support at $15.03 ¾. While May-23 meal held the $450 level, it closed near its low and back below its 100 day MA. Spot board crush margins just keep getting battered, down another $.14 today to $.88 bu., its lowest level since June-22. The USDA announced the sale of 276k tons (10 mil. bu.) of old crop beans to an unknown buyer. Feb-23 census exports at 198 mil. have begun their seasonal descent, down from 315 mil. from Jan-23, however were up 42% from Feb-22. In the first 6 months of the MY exports have reached 1.609 bil. bu. up 5% from YA. vs. the USDA forecast of down 8%. Conab estimates Brazilian harvest has reached 75% as of April 1st, down from 81% YA. The Argentine government announced their 3rd round of preferential currency program will begin Sat. April 8th and run thru May 24th. The preferred exchange rate will be 300 pesos per US dollar, well above the current market rate of 210. Their goal is to attract 5 – 7 mmt of farmer soybean sales to domestic processors. Export sales tomorrow expected at 10 – 30 mil. bu. soybeans, meal 125 – 500k tons, and soybean oil 5 – 20k tons.
CORN
Corn prices were mixed from down $.01 in spot May-23, to up $.01 in new crop futures. May-23 held support above $6.45 before recovering. The USDA announced the sale of 125k tons (5 mil. bu.) of old crop corn to an unknown buyer. While Feb-23 census exports at 129 mil. were roughly half of YA, they were 10 – 15 mil. above the inspection pace. YTD census exports at 680 mil. are down 39% from YA, vs. the USDA forecast of down 25%. Ethanol production held steady last week at 1,003 tbd, unchanged from the previous week. Corn usage at 101 mil. bu. was just below the pace needed to reach the USDA usage forecast of 5.250 bil. Implied gasoline usage last week increased to 9.295 mil. barrels per day, the highest level of the year and up 8.6% from YA. If the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts hold look for significant planting progress made by the end of April. Temperatures in the upper 70’s to mid-80’s are expected as far north as Central Iowa for several days. Export sales tomorrow are expected to be in a range from 30 – 65 mil. bu. Added political tensions between US and China also contributing to the weaker tone. Speaker of the House McCarthy met with Taiwan President Tsa-ling-wen in California today, despite threats of retaliation from China. Next week Brazil’s President Lula is scheduled to travel to China to further deepen trade relations between the 2 counties.
WHEAT
Wheat prices closed lower in all 3 classes with KC and MGEX down $.11 – $.16, while Chicago was $.07 – $.09 lower. The GFS weather model has offered better prospects for rain in the US Southern plains late next week as illustrated in the 6-10 forecast. The EU model remains dry. Japan Ag Ministry is seeking 79k mt of Aussie, Canadian, and US origin milling grade wheat in a tender closing Thursday. EU soft wheat exports as of April 2nd for 22/23 have reached 23.15 mmt, up 7.6% from YA. Feb-23 US census exports at 69 mil. bu. were up 4.5% from Jan-23 and unchanged from YA. YTD sales in the first 9 months of the June thru May MY have reached 597 mil. bu. down 3% from YA in line with the USDA forecast. Egypt’s GASC announced they are seeking an undisclosed amount of milling wheat in a tender closing tomorrow. Shipment is for mid to late May-23. Export sales tomorrow expected to be 6 – 16 mil. bu.
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