Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher Corn and wheat futures may be oversold. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is slightly lower. Crude is slightly higher. Gold is higher. Market volatility could increase as US election nears. Brazil is getting rain. Rains are forecast for US Midwest and east plains. EU and Black Sea weather is dry.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 9.90. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were higher. China industrial profits dropped 27 pct yoy. US harvest is 89 pct. US soybean exports are up 2 pct vs ly and USDA up 9 pct. SX-SF spreads moved out to -12. SH-SK is out to -15. Some est Brazil crop at record 169 mmt which should provide pressure to futures February forward. Brazil soybean export basis unch with reports rains are more scattered than general. Same could be said about Argentina rains. World vegoil prices appear to be up against resistance especially after Mondays steep losses in crude.
CORN
CZ is near 4.13. Dalian corn futures were higher. US corn exports are up 33 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 1 pct. USDA announced 124 mt US corn to Japan and 120 mt to unknown. US corn harvest is 81 pct vs 67 ly. Low water raising US logistic challenges and offering weakness to domestic basis. Brazil corn futures are higher for 8th straight session and Real is at 12 week low. Some look for nearby corn futures in a range from 3.90-4.30. French corn harvest is only 25 pct vs 81 ly. Ukraine continues to drop corn prices looking for demand.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.61 and 8 week low. KWZ is near 5.64. MWZ is near 5.97. Global wheat prices are lower led by Russia. US export are up 34 pct vs USDA est of up 17, US wheat exports are up 34 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 17. US winter wheat plantings are near 80 pct. USDA rated the US winter wheat crop at 38 pct G/E vs 47 ly. Some look for nearby Chicago wheat futures in a range from 5.50-6.00. Argentina prices near 7 month low. French winter wheat plantings 21 pct vs 50 ly.
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