Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SK is down 2 cents and near 15.26. SH is near 15.40. SMK is near 495.4. BOK is near 60.69. CK is unch and near 6.37. CH is near 6.45. WK is up 1 cent and near 6.97. KWK is up 2 cents and near 8.00. MWK is unch and near 8.63. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar is unch. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are lower. Fed Chairman Powell will testify to Senate committee today.
SK tested 5.31. SX 13.81. Talk of lower Argentina crop raised concern they will need to import 7-8 mmt to crush enough o satisfy product export needs. Some are below 30 mmt vs USDA 41. Most doubt USDA will drop Argentina crop below 37 mmt tomorrow. Brazil crop should remain near record 153 mmt with 43 pct of crop harvested. Argentina farmers are slow sellers of soybeans. Brazil farmer selling remains active. China Jan-Feb soybean imports were a record 16 mmt. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower.
CK is sharply unchanged in a 2 cent range. USDA did announce new sales to unknown and Japan. Japan is active in US corn export market. Still, season to date exports are down 39 pct vs ly. Some est Argentina corn crop near 39 mmt vs USDA 47. Most doubt USDA will drop Argentina crop below 44 mmt tomorrow. Brazil and Argentina farmers are slow sellers of corn. Both Brazil and Argentina are out of the export market. Still no news on Ukraine export corridor deal. East Ukraine war is intensifying. Some feel Ukraine 2023 corn crop may not be any larger than 10 mmt over 6 mmt domestic use.
WK fell to 17 month lows. KWK 13 month. Lower Russia export prices continue to weigh on futures. US wheat exports remain slow. USDA lowered KS G/E rating , OK was increased and TX was unch at 19 pct. Australia est 2023 crop near 28 mmt vs 39 record last year.
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