Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Weekly US export sales report is delayed until tomorrow due to Mondays holiday. US stocks, Crude and gold are trying to be higher. US Dollar is lower.
SX is near 10.14. China anti-dumping against Canada rapeseed weighed on World vegoil prices. 3 estimates of US crop is near 4,587 vs USDA 4,589.July US census soybean exports support USDA export goal of 1,700. US Midwest is dry. Brazil weather is mostly dry. SX dropped from May 7 high near 12.30 to recent low near 9.55. Since the low, SX has rallied 69 cents on dry South America weather and new China buying US 2024/25 beans is key to prices. There is talk that China bought a total of 27 soybean cargoes from Brazil and US. Argentina has avoided a Crusher strike.
CZ is near 4.11. US 10 day Midwest forecast is dry. South America weather remans dry. July US census corn exports suggest US exports could reach 2,290 mil bu. 3 estimates of US crop is near 15,084 vs USDA 15,147. CZ dropped from May 14 high near 4.96 to recent low near 3.85. Since the low, CZ has rallied 28 cents on dry South America and tight US supplies. Low US and Brazil water levels are historically low and weighing on spreads and basis.
WZ is near 5.77. EU is wet, Black Sea is dry and US south plains are dry. July US census wheat exports were 73 mil bu vs 64 ly. August could be 92 mil bu vs 38 ly. US Midwest and plains are dry. EU is wet. Early EU wheat harvest yields are lower due to wet summer. More dry weather for US plains could begin to cut into world supply.
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