Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Soybeans and corn are higher while wheat is lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher but near $67. Russia attacked Ukraine port on Danube. Hurricane Helene slammed into Florida panhandle coast with storm surge, strong winds and heavy rains. There is still chance of rains across N Brazil in 7-14 day forecast.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures tested 11.00 SK25 on fund short covering due to dry weather across N Brazil. Funds may also be reducing risk as month end nears and US election is closer. Weekly US soybean export sales were disappointing. Total commit is near last year vs USDA est of a 9 pct increase. US soymeal sales are up 8 pct vs ly. Both Argentina and N Brazil need rains for planting. China Vegoil prices are near 8-9 month higher. USDA Sep 1 stocks report is Monday. Trade est US stocks near 351 mill bu vs 264 ly. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest, East and SE harvest could be slowed due to Helene rains.
CORN
Corn futures are slightly higher. On Thursday. Futures could not hold gains on talk of increase farmer selling. US corn export commit is up 17 pct vs last year and in line with USDA est. Both Argentina and N Brazil need rains for planting. Argentina corn crop is 10 pct planted with central south areas dry, China Dalian corn prices were higher. USDA Sep 1 stocks report is Monday. Trade est US corn stocks near 1,844 mill bu vs 1,360 ly. US west Midwest is warm and dry which should help harvest, East and SE harvest could be slowed due to Helene rains. Most look for CZ range of 3.95-4.25until 50-60 pct of US harvest is done.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are slightly lower. Lower than expected weekly US export sales offered resistance. US south plains and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet and cool. US wheat export commit is running 17 pct above last year vs USDA est of up 7 pct. USDA Sep 1 stocks report is Monday. Trade est US wheat stocks near 1,973 mill bu vs 1,767 ly. Market continues to be good sellers if WZ nears 6.00. Need higher Russia prices to move WZ over 6.00. Looks like they have enough supply to offer wheat at low prices through November.
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