Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH is up 12 cents and near 15.05. SMH is near 469.4. BOH is near 63.32. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.69. WH is down 6 cents and near 7.69. KWH is down 6 cents and near 8.82. MWH is down 3 cents and near 9.16. US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Gold, silver, copper and cotton are higher.
Soybean futures started 2023 with a bang. Better than expected weekend Argentina rains, higher US Dollar and continued drop in weekly US soybean exports offered resistance. US season to date soybean exports are down 7 pct vs ly. This trend could support USDA dropping US soybean exports 50 mil bu. Historically, when USDA increase their November crop est from October, they increase Jan. Could be up 20 mil bu. Overnight, soybeans are adding Argentina weather premium do to a drier forecast and talk their crop could be below 40 mmt vs USDA 49.5. Matif rapeseed prices are at 5 week high on talk of China interest. Dalian soybean and soymeal prices were lower.
Corn futures are slightly lower. There is some long liquidation on higher US Dollar and slow US export demand and weekly exports. US season to date corn exports are down 27 pct vs ly and 18 pct below USDA goal. This trend could support USDA dropping US corn exports 100 mil bu. Historically, when USDA increase their November crop est from October, they increase Jan. Could be up 75 mil bu. EU prices are lower on drop in demand. EU July-Jun corn exports were 14.7 mmt vs 7.3 ly. There are no Brazil corn export prices.
Wheat futures dropped on lower Russia prices, slow demand for US exports and low weekly exports. Wheat has little new news. Matif wheat futures were lower following US and talk of lower Russia prices. US south plains remain dry. N Africa is dry. Argentina wheat exports could drop to 5-6 mmt vs 16 ly. Australia prices are lower on talk of record crop. Key is Russia prices and what farmers do after Holiday. Russia wheat supplies are record high. USDA rated KS wheat crop at 21 pct G/E vs 23 previous and 36 ly. OK 39 vs 32 and 22 ly. NE 20 vs 21 and 41 ly and IL 79 vs 36 and 83 ly.
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