Written Commentary
Grain Futures Outlook
USDA rated the US 2020 corn crop 69 pct good/ex versus 71 last week. Iowa was down 10 pct from last week. NE dropped 15 pct. ND dropped 5 pct. MN, SD and WI remain highest rated corn states. OH lowest. USDA they will collect new Iowa corn and soybean acreage data for the September crop report.
USDA rated the US 2020 soybean crop 72 pct good/ex versus 74 last week. Iowa was down 8 pct from last week. NE dropped 5 pct. ND dropped 4 pct. LA, MN, SD and WI remain highest rated corn states. OH lowest.
One crop watchers estimated US corn yield still near 180.0 and soybean 52.0. Both below USDA August guess but still above trend. They estimate that 9 pct of US corn crop will yield below trend, 29 pct at trend and 52 pct above trend. They did drop corn acres 500 thousand from USDA. They estimate that 2 pct of US soybean crop will yield below trend, 20 pct at trend and 73 pct above trend. This is a higher soybean rating than last week.
Grains are lower. SX is down 4 cents and near 9.11. CU is down 2 cents and near 3.28. WZ is down 4 cents and near 5.12. KWZ is down 4 cents and near 4.44. US stocks are moderately higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher and back above 2,000. Some feel lower US Dollar and higher Gold suggest slower US economy.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 11 yuan in soybeans, up 7 in Corn, up 21 in Soymeal, up 36 in Soyoil, and down 2 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 7 ringgit at 2,672 (basis November) at midsession on expectations of lower August exports, higher production.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest has mostly light rainfall for the region with any better coverage east of the Mississippi River. Temps run from below to above average over the period. The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest is mixed between the models with the European slightly below average rainfall and average temps and the GFS bringing below average temps and rainfall.
Pro Farmer tour participant estimated SD 2020 corn yield near 179.2 versus their estimate last year of 142.0 and USDA August guess of 167.0. Pro Farmer tour participant estimated OH 2020 corn yield near 167.7 versus their estimate last year of 140.8 and USDA August guess of 175.0.Both states had soybean pod count well above last year and 3 year average.
U.S. soybean crushings increased to a four-month high in July, according NOPA data released. NOPA said its members processed 172.794 million bushels of soybeans last month, up from 167.263 million bushels in June and up from the 168.093 million bushels crushed in July 2019; analysts, on average, had been expecting a crush of 172.015 million bushels
Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running up 2% ahead of a year ago (up 2% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% decrease on the year, Corn 13% behind a year ago (14% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season and Soybeans are down 6% on the year (down 5% last week) with the USDA having a 6% decrease forecasted on the year
Managed funds were net buyers of 9,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 22,000 Corn; bought 15,000 Soybeans; net bought 7,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 95,000 Corn; net long 60,000 Soybeans; net short 16,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 59,000 Soyoil.
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