Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grain futures are sharply unch post-US midterm election and before USDA report later today. SF is up 3 cents and near 14.49. SMF is near 415.0. BOF is near 72.35. CH is unch and near 6.72. WH is unch and near 8.47. KWH is unch and near 9.42. MWH is up 1 cent and near 9.64. US midterm election is not yet decided. US stocks, dollar and most commodities are lower. GSI Commodity Index gapped open lower.
US PNW and north plains blizzard could slow grain movement. Florida hurricane will move into SE with above normal rains. Could eventually move NE and become a Noreaster. US south plains is dry. Argentina and Brazil could see rains. France could see rains. Rest of EU and Black Sea is warm and dry.
Trade does not look for many changes to US and World soybean numbers. Yesterday USDA announced 139 mt of US soybeans to China, 144 mt to Mexico and 132 mt to unknown. Fact Crude is down 5 pct this week offers resistance. USDA baseline had little impact except USDA may be too low on soyoil biofuel demand. Brazil protests continue. China PPI was lower than expected. That raised concern about import demand. 19 million Chinese in south are rapidly being tested.
Corn futures are lower despite fact US Dollar is at 7 week low. USDA announced 339 mt of US corn was sold to Mexico. Turkey is working on a 12 month extension of the Ukraine export corridor which could open door for more corn exports. USDA could lower US corn exports today. Key CH support is near 6.69. USDA baseline est 2023 corn yield 181, 2032 199.
Wheat futures are lower despite fact US Dollar is at 7 week low. Algeria wheat tender prices were lower than expected. Turkey is working on a 12 month extension of the Ukraine export corridor which could weigh on wheat prices. More important is possibility of a large Russia Bank sanctions being dropped. This to increase Russia grain and fertilizer exports. Russia wheat export prices are already World’s lowest. This would be negative wheat futures. KWH is almost 100 cents over WH. KWH deliverable stocks are down 29 pct from ly while SRW stocks are up 6 pct. WH support is near 8.35. KWH resistance is 9.66.
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