USDA Report Day and Grains Are Mixed
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SU is up 2 cents and near 8.97. CU is up 1 cents and near 3.50. WU is down 1 cent and near 5.23. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is mixed. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. Crude is lower on demand concerns.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 29 cents; HRW up 19; HRS up 15; Corn is up 5 cents; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points.
Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 17 yuan, up 10 in Corn, up 15 in Soymeal, down 8 in Soyoil, and down 78 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 18 ringgit at 2,385 (basis September) at midsession on weaker July export expectations.
The southwestern US Corn Belt, such as Missouri and eastern Kansas, will still likely trend drier in the second week of the outlook; the position of the ridge of high pressure in the second week is likely to favor complexes of thunderstorms to move mostly through northern and eastern production areas of the Corn Belt.
An unusually cool air mass will drop down through the Northern Plains and into Nebraska and the northwestern Corn Belt Tuesday into Thursday. This will merge with a weather disturbance containing some monsoonal moisture leading to a potential significant rain event from Nebraska through Wisconsin within this timeframe.
The 11 to 16 day forecast has now turned mixed with the models. The GFS sees close to average rainfall and temps for the Midwest through the period. The European model sees ridging producing limited rainfall and above average temps.
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 corn crop near 15,036 mil bu versus 15,995 previous
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 soybean crop near 4,152 mil bu versus 4,125 previous
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020 wheat crop near 1,848 mil bu versus 1,877 previous
USDA is expected to estimate US 2019/20 corn carryout near 2,277 mil bu versus 2,103 previous
USDA is expected to estimate US 2019/20 soybean carryout near 584 mil bu versus 585 previous
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 corn carryout near 2,683 mil bu versus 3,323 previous
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 soybean carryout near 416 mil bu versus 395 previous
USDA is expected to estimate US 2020/21 wheat carryout near 948 mil bu versus 925 previous
USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 corn carryout near 325 mmt versus 337previous
USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 soybean carryout near 96 mmt versus 96 previous
USDA is expected to estimate World 2020/21 wheat carryout near 316 mmt versus 316 previous
On Thursday Managed funds were net buyers of 7,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; bought 4,000 Soybeans; net bought 4,000 lots of soymeal, and; sold 3,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net short 17,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 158,000 Corn; net long 80,000 Soybeans; net short 43,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 2,000 Soyoil.
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