Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
USDA report day. Most look for a higher US 2024/25 soybean carryout due to lower export est. There is talk that China is buying both US and Brazil soybeans. Dalian soybean and soymeal were lower. Palmoil. And soyoil were higher. US weekly soybean export sales were 1,264 mt vs 1,443 last week. Total commit is near 20.1 mmt vs 19.4 ly. USDA goal is 50.3 mmt vs 46.2 ly. China commit is near 8.1 mmt with 5.4 unknown. US soymeal commit is 4.9 mmt vs 4.5 ly. USDA goal is 15.8 mmt vs 14.5 ly. Brazil N/C rains more scattered than general. Brazil soymeal values are lower on slow EU buying.
CORN
Corn futures are higher. USDA October report day. Most look for a higher US 2024 crop to offset lower carryin. Most also look for higher US 2024/25 corn carryout due to lower export est. China corn futures were higher. Weekly US corn sales were 1,222 mt vs 1,684 last week. Total commit is 17.6 mmt vs 15.2 ly. USDA goal is 58.4 mmt vs 58.1 ly. Mexico commit is near 8.0 mmt with unknown 2.9. Some unknown could be EU. Russia attacks on Ukraine grain vessel offering support. N/C Brazil rains are more scattered Bulls want to buy 4.10 CZ.
WHEAT
Wheat futures are higher. US south plains is dry. EU is wet and cool. Russia wheat price have traded higher, but so has World prices. This continues to leave Russia competitive for buyers. Russia crop could be closer to 80 mmt. Government and exports are meeting about export controls. Weekly US export sales were 433 mt vs 443 last week. Total commit is 12.0 mmt vs 10.0 ly. USDA goal is 22.4 mmt vs 19.2 ly. Russia attacks on Ukraine grain vessels may be offering support. Argentina lower crop rating to 29 pct G/E vs 36 previous. There is also talk Turkey may increase import needs to 30 pct vs 15 previous.
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