Written Commentary
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STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Personal income in May was down 4.2%, which compares to expectations of a 6.6% decline. Consumer spending was up 8.2% when a gain of 8.6% was anticipated.
The 9:00 central time June consumer sentiment index is estimated to be 78.9.
Stock index futures will be supported by the belief that any slowdown in the global economic recovery will be met with additional accommodation from the world’s central banks along with more fiscal stimulus.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is higher with safe-haven demand supporting the greenback.
The euro currency is lower despite news that the annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 in the euro zone increased to 8.9% in May 2020 from 8.2% in April.
Interest rate differential expectations have recently turned slightly more favorable to the U.S. dollar.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged down to 0.670%, from 0.674% Thursday.
According to financial futures markets there is a 97.8% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave its fed funds rate unchanged at zero to 25 basis points at its July 29 policy meeting.
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