Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Happy US CPI Thursday. Grain futures are mixed. SF is down 1 cent and near 14.51. SMF is near 408.7. BOF is near 73.39. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.69. WH is up 1 cent and near 8.29. KWH is unch and near 9.26. MWH is down 1 cent and near 9.50.
US PNW and north plains blizzard could slow grain movement. Florida hurricane will move into SE with above normal rains. US south plains is dry. Argentina and Brazil could see rains. France could see rains. Rest of EU and Black Sea is dry. 2nd week shows subzero temps across most of Russia and Ukraine.
China saw good new domestic soymeal trade. Dalian soybean, soymeal and RSO prices were higher. Soyoil and plalmoil were lower. USDA announced 264 mt US soybean to China and 198 mt to unknown. USDA added 2.3 mmt to old crop World soybean end stocks incl China, Brazil and Argentina. They also added 8 mmt to 2023/24 World end stocks. USDA continues to estimate an increase of 36 mmt to 2023 World soybean crop vs ly. There is talk that Argentina will impose another soy dollar policy in December. Weekly US export sales are est near 600-1,200 mt vs 830 last week.
USDA estimates that SA corn supplies will increase 13.5 mmt vs last year. Mexico is 30 pct of US corn exports. Mexico said they will no longer import US GMO corn starting 2024. USDA failed to address US corn exports. Commit is down 53 pct vs ly. USDA is forecasting a 13 pct drop. USDA may still be too high in corn crop and too low in corn imports. Key now is SA weather and Ukraine corn export corridor outcome. There will be talks Friday in Geneva. Weekly US corn sales are est at 300-650 mt v s 372 last week.
Wheat futures dropped sharply in part due to lower Russia prices and work to drop sanctions on Russia Bank that could increase Russia grain and fertilizer exports. USDA still estimates Russia wheat crop at 91 mmt vs most est closer to 100 mmt. USDA continues to show a 1.5 mmt increase in World wheat trade with data showing a decline. Argentina Rosario Exchange est their wheat crop at only 11.8 nnt vs USDA 15.5. This could suggest only 5.5 mmt exports vs USDA 10 mmt. US south plains is still dry. Weekly US wheat sales are est at 250-600 mt v s 348 last week.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude, gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa and cotton are all lower. Most commodities are lower. GSI commodity index is down to 627.
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