Tightening Sugar Supply In Brazil
With another key retailer earnings report helping to strengthen the demand outlook, cocoa may be able to extend a recovery move this week. March cocoa regained upside momentum and rallied to a 1 1/2 week high before finishing strong yesterday. The Swiss chocolatier Barry Callebaut reported quarterly earnings and revenue that were much stronger than trade forecasts, and that follows the positively-received reports from Hershey and Mondelez over the past few weeks.
Coffee prices have held within a 14.80 cent trading range since mid-October as the market is waiting for stronger guidance on Brazil’s upcoming “on-year” crop. Near-term supply issues and improving demand prospects have helped to keep prices above their 50-day moving average during this timeframe, and should continue to keep coffee well supported on near-term pullbacks.
December cotton reacted positively to Tuesday’s USDA report but did not follow through, and experienced a successful test of the contract high. The market continues to be defined by the wide range from early last week. The dollar surged sharply to the upside and this undercut cotton.
Sugar prices have not had a positive daily result this week and may face headwinds from key outside markets. The market continues to receive bullish supply news from Brazil that should underpin sugar prices. Sharp selloffs in crude oil and RBOB gasoline prices as well as a pullback in the Brazilian currency added significant carryover pressure on the sugar market, as weakness in those markets encourage Brazil’s Center-South mills to produce more sugar for the export market.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.