Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are mixed. US stocks are mixed. US Dollar is lower. Crude is near $70. Gold is higher. West US plains could see rain. Brazil is getting rains. All but Argentina BA province is getting rain. France is getting too much rain. US winter could see above moisture and below temps north and below moisture and above temps south.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 9.88. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were lower. China monthly pork production continues to drop vs last year. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. US basis is firm with commercials looking for good N Midwest beans to blend with lower quality S Midwest and Delta beans. US Congress failed to pass law restricting biofuel feedstocks to domestic oils. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 1,000-2,200 mt vs 1,264 last week. Some feel lower China soybean import demand and talk of record high Brazil 2025 crop could drop US export 150 mil bu and add same to carryout.
CORN
CZ held 4.00. Dalian corn was lower. Rains in N/C Brazil will help plantings and soils. Cash is firming and CZ-CH spread is -15. Open harvest weather could have harvest near 63 pct by Sunday. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 1,200-2,200 mt vs 1,222 last week. USDA announced 197 mt of new corn sales to Mexico. 101 2024/25 to unknown. US corn exports prices are competitive to buyers for now. IGC left World crop est unch. Higher US offset lower Black Sea. US weekly ethanol prod was largest for last week with stocks up 5 pct vs ly.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.88. Rain are forecast for US plains. US consumer added coverage near key support. TX, OK and W KS could see 2.00-4.00 inches of rain next Sun-Tue. Most quote Russia near $235-240. Ukraine is $230. This is still lowest export price. There is concern that lower global energy demand could also reduce food demand. Wheat awaits news on global demand, US election and regional conflicts. Weekly US export sales are est at 250-550 mt vs 433 last week.
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