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Supply Concerns Continue For Coffee


March cocoa saw initial upside follow-through from Monday’s wide-sweeping outside-day higher close and bounced back but lost its strength again late in the day as it finished with a moderate loss. Near-term demand prospects remain subdued at best as the new UK COVID strain may diminish the European outlook well into the first quarter of 2021.


This week’s whipsaw price action in the coffee market has managed to keep prices in close proximity to last Wednesday’s 3-month high, in spite of sluggish global risk sentiment and ongoing near-term demand concerns. The Brazilian currency fell back on the defensive, which weighed on coffee prices as that may encourage Brazil’s farmers to sell their remaining near-term supply to foreign customers.


While agricultural markets and the stock market recovered from the sharp losses early on Monday, the lack of any recovery bounce in cotton might be a sign that a more serious correction may be in order. However, the strong recovery overnight is a positive development.


Sugar continues to see choppy price action, but the market remains well clear of last Friday’s 7 1/2 week low and on-track for a second weekly gain in a row. If key outside markets can regain a positive tone, sugar should climb well above its 50-day moving average.

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