Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Yesterday June S&P 500 futures advanced to their highest level since March 4 and NASDAQ futures hit their best levels since February 21.
However, today futures are lower after jobless claims in the U.S. came in a little higher than expected. Some of this bearish influence was offset by news that the European Central Bank increased its asset purchasing program by more than analysts had expected.
Jobless claims in the week ended May 30 were 1,887,000 when 1,790,000 were expected.
Stock index futures have been performing well in spite of a variety of old and new geopolitical concerns.
CURRENCY FUTURES
After being down for five days and making another low in the overnight trade, the U.S. dollar is higher today. Last week the U.S. dollar broke out to the downside and hit its lowest level since March 13.
The euro currency is higher after the European Central Bank at its regularly scheduled policy meeting today almost doubled its asset-buying program, adding EUR600 billion ($675 billion) to the EUR750 billion that it announced in March.
The central bank said the program that was initially due to end in December would continue until the end of June 2021.
As expected, the ECB also kept its key interest rate unchanged.
The Australian dollar is lower after a report showed retail sales in Australia fell 17.7% in April.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures were temporarily supported by the jobless claims report but are lower now.
The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 9-10. According to financial futures markets there is a 92.9% probability that the FOMC will leave its fed funds rate unchanged at zero to 25 basis points. Yesterday the probability was 97.1%. Also, there is a 7.1% probability of a 25-basis point increase at next week’s meeting.
This suggests that there is a growing belief that there will be some recovery in the economy later this year.
SUPPORT & RESISTANCE
June 20 S&P 500
Support 3090.00 Resistance 3129.00
June 20 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 97.030 Resistance 97.650
June 20 Euro Currency
Support 1.11920 Resistance 1.12800
June 20 Japanese Yen
Support .91550 Resistance .92120
June 20 Canadian Dollar
Support .73800 Resistance .74300
June 20 Australian Dollar
Support .6875 Resistance .6942
June 20 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 176^0 Resistance 177^20
August 20 Gold
Support 1696.0 Resistance 1732.0
July 20 Copper
Support 2.4550 Resistance 2.5050
July 20 Crude Oil
Support 36.21 Resistance 37.13
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
