Written Commentary
Grains Outlook
USDA report day. Grains are higher. SX is up 8 cents and near 9.85. There is talk of additional China buying US soybeans. SMV is near 315.6. BOV is near 33.21. CZ is up 1 cents and near 3.66. WZ is up 1 cent and near 5.49. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 4.78. New highs are attracting new technical buying. Grain futures are overbought. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.US election is 53 days away. Virus is still impacting global economies.
Key to report is US corn and soybean yield, China corn and soybean import demand, World corn and wheat production. It appears global soybean. Corn, vegoil and wheat demand is improving despite Covid.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up 1 cent; HRW up 7; HRS down 6; Corn is up 9 cents; Soybeans up 17;
Soymeal up $3.00, and; Soyoil up 55 points. Crushing margins are down 5 cents at $0.86; Oil share is unchanged at 34%.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 29 yuan in soybeans, up 27 in Corn, up 32 in Soymeal, down 18 in Soyoil, and down 10 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 19 ringgit at 2,795 (basis November) at midsession and set for its first weekly drop in three on rising output, demand worries.
The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest looks to be fairly quiet during this time period. A front rolls in by the end of next week and bring light to moderate rainfall to MI, IN, and OH with things mainly dry elsewhere. Temps look to run below average to average for most of the region. The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has below average precip in most of the Plains and Midwest. Temps will run average to below in the Midwest and average in the Plains.
Weekly US export sales are estimated near 1,100-1,900 soybeans. 1,000-1,900 corn and 250-600 wheat.
On Thursday, Managed Money were net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; sold 1,000 Soybeans; were net even in Soymeal, and; net even in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 16,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 41,000 Corn; net long 187,000 Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 81,000 Soyoil.
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