Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. US export sales day. Grains are higher. SH is up 12 cents and near 15.05. SMH is near 478.6. BOH is near 62.66. CH is up 3 cents and near 6.59. WH is unch and near 7.40. KWH is up 2 cents and near 8.24. MWH is up 4 cents and near 9.03. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude, gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. CBOT closed Monday.
Corn is near 6.60. US export sales are est at 300-1,000. Argentina lowered their corn crop from 55 mmt to 45. Could be 38 due to drought. Ouch!! USDA 55. Average trade est for Argentina corn is down 3 mmt to 52. Trade est Brazil near 126.3 vs USDA 126 and 116 ly. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 1,314 vs 1,257 previous. Ukraine Oct-Dec corn exports 7.5 mmt. Crop 27.0 with 20 pct still in fields. Domestic use is 8 mmt. With 5 mmt in fields, USDA export est of 17.5 looks high. Will China buy US corn?
Soybean futures are higher. US export sales are est at 500-1,200. Concern about Argentina soybean crop supportive. Argentina lowered their soybean crop from 49 mmt to 37. Could be 35 due to drought. Ouch!! USDA 49.5. Trade est Brazil 2023 crop near a record 152.3 mmt vs 127 ly. Brazil Real is higher on threats of more protest. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 236 vs 220 previous. India will halt duty free soyoil imports April 1. Dalian soymeal and soyoil prices higher. Palmoil lower on talk of peaking prices.
Wheat futures are mixed. Tuesdays KC closed near 12 month low. Chicago 15 month low. US and N Africa dryness continues a concern. Lower Russia wheat prices offers resistance. USDA report Jan 12. Average est for US 2022/23 carryout is 580 vs 571 previous. US 2023 winter wheat acres are est at 34.5 mil acres vs 33.3 ly. Both Australia and Russia crop estimates should be increased. Some est Russia near 100 mmt vs USDA 91.
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